U.S. Jobs Just Beat Expectations By A Mile. Treasuries Rallied Anyway.

Bond traders had braced for a weak jobs print. They got a strong one, with 115,000 added jobs against forecasts near 53,000.

Then they bought Treasuries anyway. That tells you a lot about where investors think the Federal Reserve is heading next.

What The Numbers Show

April's headline gain looks good on the surface. Healthcare added 37,000 jobs, transportation and warehousing tacked on 30,000, and retail picked up 22,000.

Federal government jobs kept shrinking, with another 9,000 lost. Manufacturing and information services also lost workers.

Wages told a softer story. Hourly pay grew 0.2% in April and 3.6% from a year ago, both below forecasts of 0.3% and 3.8%.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, the same as March.

Why Yields Slid

A "yield" is the interest rate a bond pays. When bond prices rise, yields fall, and that's what happened on Friday.

Traders read the cooler wage number and the layoffs in cyclical sectors as the more important signal.

In English: the labor market looks steady on the surface but is losing steam underneath.

That keeps the door open for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later this year, since lower wage growth eases pressure on inflation.

For investors, falling yields tend to support stock prices, since cheaper borrowing helps companies and high-growth stocks the most.

The Setup Going In

Heading into the report, investors had been weighing inflation that's been parked above the Fed's 2% target for a while.

The 30-year Treasury yield had crossed 5% earlier in the week as oil prices climbed.

A jobs print that walked the line between "growing" and "cooling" was the cleanest outcome for markets, and that's roughly what they got.

Stocks opened slightly higher on the print, with Treasury yields slipping in early trading.

What To Watch

The next big test for bonds is the May jobs report and the Fed's June meeting. Both arrive before traders find out if April's mix of strong hiring and soft wages was a one-off or a real trend.

The bond market is telling investors something the headline number isn't, and the bigger move could come from whoever turns out to be right.