What powered the production record
Petrobras lifted third quarter production 5.3% versus the prior quarter as new deep water units ramped at Buzios, specifically the P-78 and P-79 platforms. The FPSO Alexandre de Gusmao also hit peak output at the Mero field, and fewer maintenance shutdown losses helped. Average crude production was 2.8 million barrels per day, a level that Ativa Investimentos analyst Ilan Arbetman says already tops the company's implied 2026 guidance and sets a higher starting point for 2027.
Refining runs hard, cushioning a global shock
Running its plants at 99% of capacity, Petrobras set a new high for diesel output and kept more barrels at home, which helped Latin America's largest economy limit exposure to disruptions in global energy markets tied to the Iran war. Brazil has also leaned on subsidies and tax cuts to soften the blow from higher fuel costs, while Petrobras prioritized domestic supply by keeping utilization elevated.
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Pricing pressure builds
Brent above $110 collides with Petrobras's fuel prices lagging international benchmarks. As of Wednesday, fuel importers group Abicom said diesel leaving refineries was priced 3.76 reais (0.70 dollars) per liter under import parity - equating to a 115% difference - while gasoline was 24% below international levels. That gap raises the odds of domestic price moves, even as strong volumes and high runs improve supply.
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