At a Wednesday briefing in Hanoi, State Bank of Vietnam Deputy Governor Pham Thanh Ha said deposit and lending rates face upward pressure, even as the central bank needs to make sure businesses can still borrow. Pham Chi Quang, who heads monetary policy, said SBV must keep credit growing to support the expansion, while also managing inflation risks.
Ha added the central bank will keep a proactive, flexible stance and coordinate closely with fiscal policy to contain price pressures. SBV will monitor the money market to make sure banks have ample liquidity.
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The government's 10% growth ambition is still the north star. Over the weekend, data showed the economy running hot, averaging 9% growth across the first three quarters, alongside stronger exports and a jump in pledged foreign investment. On Saturday, Prime Minister Le Minh Hung reiterated the double-digit target and directed ministries to complete disbursement of this year's public investment and keep key projects on schedule.
Credit has already risen 11.59% since the end of last year. For this year, SBV aims for roughly 15% credit expansion, and has repeatedly said it could adjust that depending on how conditions evolve. Back in August, the central bank warned that credit was expanding faster than banks could mobilize funds, posing risks to financial and monetary stability.
Prices are running hotter than planned. September inflation reached 5.08% year on year, above the government's 4.5% ceiling, with transport and construction costs still elevated due to the Iran war. That raises the stakes for the central bank to prioritize price and exchange-rate stability.
Banks are also scrambling for more funding to power growth and are tapping offshore loans as competition to supply liquidity intensifies. For everyday investors, the mix to watch is straightforward: strong credit demand, pricier funding and above-target inflation can keep borrowing costs sensitive and corporate cash needs front and center.
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