Turkey's funds were hit hard in September, and a big chunk of that money didn't vanish so much as change parking spots. BofA Securities economist Hande Kucuk counted around 743 billion liras ($15 billion) of withdrawals on the Tefas platform. She said the full mutual fund universe was measured through Sep. 16, after which 131 funds were left out because the market watchdog had ordered them into liquidation. The figures were published in a Monday research note.
Kucuk wrote that bank deposits rose by roughly 950 billion liras from Sep. 1 to Sep. 29, with corporates responsible for 884 billion liras of the increase. Within that corporate buildup, about 63% was in lira accounts and 37% in foreign currency, which she said lines up with recent dollarization patterns. According to Kucuk, the initial wave of redemptions hit money market funds, then spread to other categories as the month went on. Separately, Goldman Sachs said data through September point to about half of the money market outflows moving into domestic FX and gold deposits.
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The fund turmoil raised concern about a swing into dollars that could unsettle the currency at a time when officials are focused on curbing inflation. Kucuk wrote that dollarization was "contained" last month. BofA estimates residents' total FX-linked assets increased by $1.7 billion. She also put the central bank's net FX sales at about $9.5 billion during the four weeks ending Sep. 25; approximately one-third was directed toward satisfying residents' demand for FX and gold, while the bulk of the remainder was associated with overseas withdrawals via portfolio and swap routes.
The picture that emerges is a rapid reshuffle: outflows from funds, a big lift in deposits, and a contained tilt toward FX. BofA expects reserve pressures to stay manageable and does not foresee a "meaningful change in the current pace of lira depreciation." For everyday savers, the signal is that September's jolt was largely about where cash sits rather than a wholesale rush for the exits.
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