Wondering if the pill dials down cravings like the shot? Not quite. In BI's survey, 74% of oral users said they cut back on salty snacks, compared with 80% of those using injections.
The same split showed up in the bakery aisle: 76% of pill takers said they ate fewer baked goods, versus 82% among shot users. A similar, milder retreat for pill users showed up across additional areas such as confections and shelf-stable goods like soup.
The frequency story tracks too. Among people who snacked three times a day before starting a weight-loss drug, 49% of those on injections pared back to one snack a day, while 39% of pill users matched that shift. People on shots additionally noted larger boosts in fruit and vegetable intake than those taking pills.
Analysts Jennifer Bartashus and Keana Bloomfield said oral options still pressure packaged food makers such as Mondelez, Hershey, Kraft Heinz and General Mills. They also noted that Mondelez and Hershey remain among the most at-risk, since GLP-1 users are cutting back the most in categories like candy, bakery items, and salty snacks.
"Though oral GLP-1s still pose a challenge for food makers like Mondelez, Hershey, Kraft Heinz and General Mills, growth in pill use could reduce the negative impact of weight-loss drugs on product sales," the report from Bloomberg Intelligence said, crediting the two analysts.
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Pills are expected to pull more people into the GLP-1 category because they are generally simpler to take. BI estimates that by 2030, the share of Americans on a GLP-1 will top 19%, up from about 7.5% this year. Research to date ties pills to somewhat lower weight loss than injections, and drugmakers warn against comparing outcomes from different trials.
Food companies are reshaping lineups toward higher protein, added fiber and more nutrient-dense options. PepsiCo Inc., for example, now sells high-protein Doritos and Smartfood FiberPop popcorn. While executives often cite past data showing some users revert to old habits after stopping the meds, BI's survey found 46% of those who discontinued said they are steadily keeping their grocery shopping habits the same, and 41% said they have consistently kept soft drink consumption lower. For food companies, "the total impact will continue to rise with overall adoption," Bartashus said. "The severity of that rise may be somewhat tempered by a greater mix of pill use."
If pill use grows, the overall demand drag on snack-heavy categories likely keeps building, just with a lighter touch than feared. That could pressure companies most tied to treats while leading them to bolster selections with higher protein, fiber and other nutrients.
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