What O'Leary is signaling now
Speaking ahead of Ryanair's annual general meeting, Michael O'Leary said he anticipates prices will be "very modestly down" during July to September, which is the second quarter, yet warned that "the December and March quarters are entirely up in the air." CNBC sought a response from Ryanair regarding the statements.
Fuel prices are doing the talking
On Thursday, oil edged up, with Middle East tension concerns keeping Brent over $100 per barrel. Futures for U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 1.4% to $97.4 a barrel. The move has filtered straight into jet fuel: IATA's Jet Fuel Price Monitor put it at $171 a barrel for the week ended Sept. 4, a level that is 90% above the prior year's average.
Hedging buys time, not immunity
Ryanair said in April it had locked in 80% of its jet fuel needs for the summer period. Looking further out, the airline is hedged at $67 per barrel for 2027, and for 2028 it has only 15% of its requirements covered at $85 per barrel. In April, O'Leary also said: "We can guarantee people there'll be no price increases, no fuel hedging, no fuel surge levy surcharges, regardless of what happens to summer supply," he added.
Earlier warnings and the recent hit
In April, O'Leary told CNBC that as jet fuel costs bite, some financially weaker European airlines could see "failures" later in the year. Ryanair's first quarter profit dropped 34% because consumers put off making reservations once the U.S.-Iran war began on Fe. 28. At the time, O'Leary said first quarter ticket prices were cut as nervous travelers held off amid the Middle East conflict.
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What this means for your wallet
If oil stays pricey, airlines with less protection on fuel costs may lean on fares to make the math work, and Ryanair's own hedge book shows why timing matters: much of summer was covered, but outer years are only partly locked. For travelers, that mix can translate into cheaper near-term seats and a bumpier ride later, depending on how crude behaves.
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