What is happening this weekend
China's Foreign Ministry says President Xi will be in New Delhi on Sept. 12-13 for the BRICS leaders' meeting, with a Modi encounter likely during the event. A New Delhi official said the immediate aim is to sketch a wider framework for engagement, spanning the economy, people-to-people links and border management. The person declined to be named since they were not cleared to speak publicly.
Xi has not been back to India since 2019, making this trip his first in that span. That year he and Modi held their second informal dialogue series in Chennai, where Xi visited the monuments at Mahabalipuram and described the coming stretch as "the most critical period" for China and India.
Why relations cooled and how they started to warm
The thaw after 2019 quickly gave way to hard freeze. A confrontation along their 3,488 kilometer (2,167 mile) frontier in June 2020 left soldiers dead on both sides and sank ties to a decades-long low. Travel then stopped during Covid, and India rolled out new curbs on Chinese investment and technology.
In 2023, Xi skipped the New Delhi Group of 20 summit and sent Premier Li Qiang instead, seen as a slight to Modi. Stability started to creep back after Xi and Modi met in Kazan, Russia, during the 2024 BRICS summit, and they later held another meeting in Tianjin in 2025. Since then, direct flights have resumed, India has loosened some investment restrictions, and both capitals signaled modest progress in border talks last month.
"There's been an effort from both sides after Xi Jinping and Modi met in October 2024 in Kazan to try and put a floor on the relationship, rebuild the relationship," said Manoj Kewalramani of the Takshashila Institution.
Ongoing frictions and what experts say
Big sticking points remain. India worries about Chinese export controls on crucial kit such as tunnel-boring equipment and on inputs like rare-earth magnets and oxides that feed manufacturing. Beijing, for its part, has long eyed India's growing alignment with the US in technology, trade and defense with suspicion.
India is also uneasy about China's deepening security relationship with Pakistan. Pakistan's military recently highlighted an air-defense system in a promotional video that looked similar to a Chinese platform, and the country's use of Chinese fighter jets in its clash with India last year was widely noted.
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Add in nature's reminder of fragility: a flash flood last month swamped villages and disrupted commerce along the China-Nepal border. China has said dozens of Indians are still unaccounted for on its side near a popular pilgrimage route. Beijing says it is in touch with foreign embassies regarding missing foreigners, but has not detailed any targeted effort to find missing Indian nationals.
Analysts are clear-eyed about the limits of this thaw. "The recent easing of tensions between India and China should be seen as pragmatic risk management rather than a more strategic reset," said Dylan Loh of Nanyang Technological University. Chietigj Bajpaee at Chatham House called Xi's trip "significant as a confidence-building mechanism," but said "fundamental grievances" over the border and China's ties with Pakistan keep this a tactical pause, not a reframe.
Kewalramani said progress in a Xi-Modi meeting would look like a structured dialogue on trade and investment, joint work on green tech and movement on rare-earth supplies for India. He added that since October 2024, both sides have tried to put a floor under the relationship. He also noted, "At the same time, I think the Chinese realize that India is a massive neighbor and a significant opportunity, but also an actor that you need to work with if you have to achieve some sort of regional order on your terms."
The wider backdrop and why it matters for your money
Expect the broader geopolitical weather to shape the tone. Under President Donald Trump, the US has been unpredictable. India's ties with Washington have worsened as trade talks stalled and as Trump drew closer to Pakistan.
By contrast, China-US relations have improved, with Xi more self-assured after the last trade war. Kewalramani said that "leaves Xi in a stronger position" going into talks with Modi.
If Xi and Modi can agree on a roadmap, it could mean steadier rules of the road for trade and investment, even as frictions over export controls, rare-earth inputs and Pakistan keep risk on the table. For anyone sourcing parts, building supply chains or watching energy transition materials, small diplomatic steps here can have outsize ripple effects. And if you like to follow developments closely, Bloomberg India shares coverage via WhatsApp.
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