What moved markets
Emerging-market stocks started the week on the front foot, with MSCI's benchmark up 1.7% to a late June high. South Korea did the heavy lifting as the Kospi leapt nearly 5%. Currencies added to the risk-on tone: the main EM FX index rose 0.2%, extending a hot streak that now spans 12 of the past 13 sessions and 11 consecutive winning weeks.
Tech's tailwind
Semiconductors and other tech names set the pace after U.S. chip shares rallied Friday. OpenAI said it is releasing GPT-6, presenting it as a key step toward building artificial general intelligence. "The strong Friday rally of tech sectors lifted the regional mood led by the Kospi, the Taiwan Stock Exchange and the Nikkei," said Wee Khoon Chong. He added that strength in technology shares more than eclipsed the "drag" from higher crude oil prices.
Oil was another key character in the day's plot. Prices rose after the U.S. and Iran traded blows in the Strait of Hormuz, and sturdy U.S. employment data led investors to assign higher odds to a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike.
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Flows and FX
With AI trades/) in Korea and Japan looking crowded, more investors are hunting for exposure in China via derivatives. Trading teams at Barclays Plc and UBS Group AG reported more clients seeking bullish options and swaps tied to the CSI indexes in recent weeks.
On the currency front, the South Korean won led the EM pack, strengthening to its firmest level in almost two years, helped by a rally in chipmakers and steady foreign buying of Kospi shares. Eastern European currencies were either a touch higher or largely unchanged. The South African rand broke a three-day winning run, and South African bond yields rose in step with oil prices.
Where risks are showing up
Not everything rallied. Ukraine's dollar notes ranked among the laggards in emerging and frontier markets as diplomacy made scant progress toward concluding the four-year war. The bigger picture for your wallet: tech enthusiasm is powering gains, but energy prices and geopolitical flare ups are still steering parts of the market, which means moves can diverge fast depending on what you own.
