ITEM Club: Greater Manchester's growth lead is set to stick

Forecasts and rankings

Greater Manchester's recent momentum looks durable, according to fresh projections from the ITEM Club. Using the UK Treasury's economic model, the group expects the area to average 1.7% annual growth from 2026 to 2030, keeping it at the top of the mayoral league table over that stretch.

How other regions compare

On the same timeline, the ITEM Club pegs the Liverpool City Region at 1.1% per year and the West Midlands at 0.8%. The West Midlands figure covers the region that includes Birmingham, the UK's second-largest city.

Politics, devolution, and limits

Andy Burnham, now Prime Minister and previously Greater Manchester's mayor, rejoined parliament earlier this year and argued last week that the region's performance shows he has a "clear theory of growth" that can be applied nationwide. He has pledged to rewire how the state operates by shifting more power out of London to kickstart a heavily centralized economy, raise weak national growth, and narrow the gap between London and other big cities.

What the ITEM Club says about impact

The ITEM Club cautions that a bigger devolution push is unlikely to deliver quick economic gains. As Tim Lyne, an economic adviser to the ITEM Club, put it: "Growth across most parts of the UK is set to stay modest over the next five years, which will limit how far and how fast local leaders can turn new powers into stronger economic outcomes." He added that the payoff from devolution "will be a gradual process rather than a rapid transformation."

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For your wallet, the takeaway is simple: if the forecasts hold, Greater Manchester could see steadier activity than peers, but do not expect sweeping changes to show up overnight in jobs, wages, or local business demand.