At a Thursday panel on the opening business day of its annual conference in Birmingham, Reform pitched itself as a government in waiting after a recent polling dip, while Labour has enjoyed a bounce under new Prime Minister Andy Burnham. Robert Jenrick, the party's Treasury spokesman, said that, if Reform prevails in a nationwide vote that must be held by August 2029, his number one task would be to hold inflation at the 2% target, calling that aim central to the party's economic program.
In a letter to gilt market participants, Jenrick wrote: "To restore confidence, the next government must get borrowing under control and tame inflation: this will bring down interest rates and get the economy moving again." He said the plan includes savings on welfare alongside measured tax cuts. He also told investors he plans to organise multiple in-person briefings in London and New York to walk through Reform's policies. The letter underscored the stakes for markets, noting the gilt market "absorbs more than £250 billion in new gilts each year, underpins the interest rates that home-owners and businesses pay, and provides the fiscal firepower for Britain to invest in infrastructure and respond to crises," and that "the proper functioning of the gilt market is critical for our national prosperity."
Business spokesman Richard Tice joined Jenrick in making the case. More than 600 tickets were sold for the new business day, but the kickoff was rocky. Guests had been told to arrive from 9 a.m.; at 9:20 a.m. staff were still rolling out Reform's turquoise carpet at the entrance, and by 10 a.m. a large number of delegates were queued outside. They were finally allowed in a little over an hour late.
For several attendees, it was a first trip to a party conference. One private equity investor, a former Conservative supporter, described the UK's position as an economic and social crisis and said he was watching for indications that Reform would take radical action. A financial services executive remarked that Jenrick - who, together with Tice, appeared at near-continuous events - was considerably better than expected. Some attendees hoped that by the next election, Reform and the Conservatives might reach an understanding to challenge Labour and Burnham, whom they described as socialist and tribal.
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Jenrick's emphasis on inflation followed a pointed challenge from Simon French, an economist at Panmure Liberum, who told delegates, "We have to acknowledge that the UK has developed an outsize inflationary problem." He argued the recent overshoot was not solely on central banks, pointing instead to governments that had allowed "our labor market, our energy market, our capital market, our energy market to become very expensive."
That prompted the question of whether reducing migrant worker numbers and introducing an online sales tax might push up inflation. Martin Clarke, a former Permira executive who advises Reform on small and medium-sized businesses, answered: "I think you're right." He said "a lot of inflation clearly has been government directed - increase to the minimum wage, taxation, national insurance, etc." Clarke added that Reform had floated ideas that could offset those pressures, including scrapping net zero mandates, while noting, "But I'm not an economist."
Reform is pitching a simple story: get borrowing under control, get inflation down to 2%, then interest rates can ease and growth can pick up. The friction point is whether other pledges - like tighter migration rules and an online sales tax - clash with that goal, a concern raised by three business attendees speaking candidly on background. They did welcome plans to slash welfare spending and pare back layers of government.
Politics is the other moving part. Recent voting-intention data using a 14-day moving average through Aug. 31 from pollsters including YouGov, Ipsos, Survation and others shows Labour edging ahead amid the Burnham bounce. If you are watching how UK policy might shape borrowing costs and growth, keep an eye on whether Reform's welfare and tax proposals, its stance on migration and net zero, and its planned investor meetings in London and New York calm - or rattle - gilt buyers.
