Oil Prices Slide Below $80 as Hopes Grow for US-Iran Deal

Hopes Rise for a Deal on the Strait of Hormuz

Oil prices just hit their lowest level in more than three weeks, and the reason is diplomacy, not a sudden wave of new supply.

Iran had refused outside help before, so this would be a real shift.

That shift revived hope that oil shipments could pick back up. It had been trading higher earlier in the day before the reports turned it around.

President Donald Trump said his latest offer is Iran's "last chance," and he said he called off a large attack planned on Iran to keep diplomacy going.

Qatar said the involved parties are passing around a draft resolution to ease tensions but cautioned that no firm deal has been reached yet.

Machines Made the Move Faster

Part of the drop came from automated traders. Commodity trading advisers, automated funds that follow price trends, cut their bets on higher oil prices to 36% from 73% when Tuesday's session opened, according to Kpler's Bridgeton Research Group.

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These funds often make price swings bigger in both directions. That fits a pattern oil traders have seen before.

"Upside moves have consistently lacked follow-through while downside moves have tended to unfold with greater velocity," "said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group".

DNB Bank's Helge Andre Martinsen said Qatar's comments look like part of a coordinated push to reopen Hormuz, with "even more difficult topics for later talks." In other words, the easy parts may come first.

Prices are far below last month's peak, which came before Trump said he delayed further strikes to give diplomacy more time.

The Risks That Haven't Gone Away

A deal would be good news for anyone who pays for gas, but it is not finished yet. PIMCO's Greg Sharenow told Bloomberg TV that global oil markets are falling short of supply because regional flows are blocked.

"Absolutely," he said when asked about that shortfall.

Other supply threats are building, too. Ukraine has changed how it strikes Russian supply lines, and in July it hit refineries, tankers, and major pipelines at least 30 times, the second-highest monthly count since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022.

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, an important Russian Black Sea port for Kazakh crude, has loaded four ships recently, though some shipowners remain reluctant to load there after recent tanker attacks.

Saudi Arabia is also preparing for a future where Hormuz stays risky. Saudi Aramco is looking at ways to ship more crude, and one option is expanding an east-west pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu that lets oil bypass the strait.

That pipeline has become vital for Saudi exports during the conflict. Saudi Arabia's tracked crude exports slipped in July, when Hormuz traffic slowed and Houthi rebels threatened Red Sea shipping.

The bottom line: If a deal lands, prices could keep falling, which usually shows up as cheaper gas and lower shipping costs. If talks fall apart, prices could snap back just as fast.

For your portfolio, oil and energy stocks may keep swinging with every headline until the agreement is actually signed.

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