Trump says he'd rather not be in USMCA, but he hasn't done what's needed to actually leave it.
The president told reporters in Paris this week that he'd "rather leave it unsigned" and "rather have it terminated," before adding he might still sign it.
The mixed signals come two weeks before a joint review deadline, even though the deal stays in force whether the three countries renew it or not.
Trump's Comments in Paris
At a press event before dinner with French President Emmanuel Macron at Versailles, Trump laid out his thinking on the trade pact that replaced NAFTA in 2020 and now governs most North American trade.
"I'm thinking about maybe we won't be able to make a deal. I would rather not have the USMCA," he said.
USMCA is short for the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, a three-country framework covering everything from auto manufacturing to dairy quotas to digital commerce rules.
He added that he'd "prefer not having an agreement" but was "open to doing it," before telling reporters: "I view it as possibly expiring immediately."
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How the Review Deadline Actually Works
July 1 isn't a termination date - it's a review checkpoint.
If the three countries don't renew the pact for another 16-year term, which the US has already ruled out, the agreement enters a rolling 10-year review period that keeps it in force until 2036 unless someone formally pulls out.
Pulling out requires six months of written notice, which Trump hasn't given. Without that notice, the existing trade rules stay in effect.
What he has done is start talking around the three-country framework, with two-country talks already underway with Mexico and another round set for this week. Canada hasn't reached the formal stage yet.
Two-country deals would replace USMCA's unified rules with separate frameworks for each border, giving the US room to push for different terms with each partner.
The trilateral deal is quietly being replaced by two separate two-country deals before the review deadline arrives.
Worth Noting
Trump has made the same argument for months: the US has more leverage than its neighbors because they rely on American trade more than the other way around.
That argument hinges on scale, with Mexico and Canada serving as the country's two largest trading partners and North American supply chains for autos, energy, and agriculture all running through the USMCA framework.
Any move to replace the trilateral pact with two-country deals would reshape how those supply chains operate.
The next round of US-Mexico talks happens this week, with no matching Canada timeline announced.
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