Trump tried to expand the Abraham Accords for years, and Saudi Arabia kept saying not yet. Now he's bundling the ask into a much bigger package.
On a Saturday call with leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, and Bahrain, Trump said he expects the holdouts to recognize Israel once a deal with Iran is reached.
The Pitch: Join Or Get Left Out
Trump's pitch was simple. Sign the Abraham Accords, and if Iran also signs a deal with the U.S., Iran joins the same coalition.
"I am mandatorily requesting that all Countries immediately sign the Abraham Accords," he wrote on Truth Social, framing it as a way to make any Iran settlement "a far more Historic Event."
According to Axios, the leaders on the call went quiet after Trump's request - to the point that he joked and asked if they were still on the line.
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Why Saudi Arabia Matters Most
The Abraham Accords were Trump's signature first-term foreign policy win, with the UAE and Bahrain signing in 2020 and Morocco and Sudan following soon after.
Egypt and Jordan already had relations with Israel from earlier deals, leaving Saudi Arabia as the biggest holdout. Riyadh leads the Arab world and shapes how the rest of the Gulf moves on Israel.
Trump pushed Saudi recognition through a Gaza ceasefire that went into effect last year, but the kingdom hasn't moved. Saudi officials have publicly tied recognition to a clear path toward a Palestinian state, which makes any deal layered on top of an Iran agreement harder, not easier.
That's why this new framing matters. Trump is no longer asking Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel on its own - he's asking the kingdom to do it as part of a broader package that also winds down the Iran conflict.
What To Watch
By Trump's read, a couple of leaders he called might sit it out, but most are "ready, willing, and able" to sign. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office didn't immediately comment.
For investors, the read goes straight to oil markets. A deal that reopens Iranian crude exports and locks in Saudi-Israel relations would lower the geopolitical risk premium baked into prices, which already started moving Monday as crude fell more than 5% on talk that Hormuz could reopen.
BofA recently called $90 Brent the best case scenario for oil this year, so the diplomatic math here goes straight to commodity prices.
The math on this deal is moving fast. The deal itself is not.
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