Moderna Raises Forecast After Profit, Points Growth Toward Cancer Vaccines

The quarter and the numbers

Moderna returned to the black in the third quarter, topping the average analyst projection, as those polled by Bloomberg had been bracing for a loss. Sales climbed 29% from a year earlier, powered by higher Covid vaccine purchases in the UK, Canada and Australia.

By Thursday, the stock had advanced over 700% for the year, and by 9:36 a.m. Friday in New York it was higher by another 2%.

Forecasts and financial moves

Management raised its full-year revenue growth range to 15% to 25%, up from 10% previously. Research and development spending fell from a year ago after Moderna finished expensive late-stage infectious disease studies, some of which enrolled tens of thousands of participants.

Chief Financial Officer Jamey Mock said US respiratory vaccination rates have "stabilized." He also called mFlusiva sales in the quarter "immaterial." The flu shot won US approval in August after regulators initially declined to review the filing, but authorization arrived too late to secure contracts for the 2026-2027 season. The vaccine was cleared for use in Canada this week.

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Cancer strategy and pipeline

Moderna is leaning harder into oncology, and the catalyst has been a positive late-stage study of its mRNA-based skin cancer vaccine with Merck. The candidate, called intismeran, primes a patient's immune system and, when paired with Merck's Keytruda, meaningfully reduced the chance that melanoma would come back or spread versus Keytruda alone.

The company plans to seek US marketing approval for intismeran by year end, with a potential green light in 2027. It expects more intismeran data in renal indications toward the end of this year or at the beginning of next year, and in bladder cancer next year. Moderna and Merck are splitting trial costs and profits evenly.

Cory Kasimov of Evercore ISI described the strong earnings as a "cherry on top" of intismeran's momentum. He flagged launch logistics, advancing into other tumor types, and reaching the company's break-even goal by 2028 as the key watch items. Chief Executive Officer Stephane Bancel believes intismeran will be effective across multiple cancers.

What this means for your portfolio

The near-term story is better Covid demand, lower R&D outlays, and a higher sales outlook. The longer-term swing factor is oncology: a filing for intismeran this year, a possible approval in 2027, and fresh data in renal and bladder cancer on deck. If the thesis that mRNA can extend beyond melanoma holds, the revenue mix - and how investors value the pipeline - could shift meaningfully.

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