Musk Says SpaceX Will Shrink Dependence on U.S. Government Contracts

Musk's latest on the mix and the growth

Musk wrote on X that revenue from U.S. government agencies will fall below 10% this quarter, down from 16.6% in the most recent period. He has also said NASA would account for only 5% of SpaceX revenue this year.

At a Baron Capital investment conference on Friday, he added that fourth quarter revenue should be up "something like" 70% from the third quarter. He reiterated that SpaceX is on track to end the year at a $100 billion annualized revenue pace, with that figure rising above $500 billion by the close of 2027.

As of 2:24 p.m. in New York, SpaceX shares were up 8.2% to $133.70, setting them up for the biggest advance since Aug. 12.

Where the money is coming from now

SpaceX has shifted from relying on NASA and Defense Department work toward renting out data center computing as part of an AI neocloud strategy, a model Wall Street has cooled on. Filings show AI revenue has already topped the launch and connectivity segments, and executives said stronger demand for compute at SpaceX's Memphis, Tennessee data centers helped the AI unit turn profitable for the first time.

Filings indicate Anthropic accounted for 34.5% of total revenue last quarter. According to Bloomberg, SpaceX identifies the US government and Anthropic as Customer A and Customer B. In 2025, deals spanning the US government agencies that SpaceX works with made up roughly one fifth of revenue. Anthropic is now the largest customer and can exit its agreements as early as next year with a notice period. SpaceX likewise holds agreements with additional technology companies, including Alphabet's Google.

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On Friday, Bloomberg reported a potential hazard for the rental strategy: Microsoft Corp. is phasing out an arrangement under which it obtains AI compute capacity from Oracle Corp.

Government ties and strategic moves

Within the US space ecosystem, SpaceX now plays a central role, securing many assignments to ferry astronauts and launch national-security payloads for NASA as well as the Pentagon. Competing firms argue that certain Defense Department procurements are written so narrowly that SpaceX is the sole eligible bidder. SpaceX still has a pivotal NASA contract under which humans could ride Starship to the Moon as early as 2028.

Musk's revenue remarks came only a few days after Democrats secured victories that returned them to control of both the House and the Senate. He spent more than $445 million backing the Republican party, a stance that could challenge his companies' federal relationships with the incoming Congress.

He also said he would consider buying a major wireless carrier primarily to secure spectrum rights. Over the last year, SpaceX acquired sizable blocks of airwaves to support a hybrid satellite and ground-based wireless network.

What this means for your portfolio

In plain English: SpaceX is trading steadier government checks for AI compute and Starlink growth. That concentrates revenue in a few big clients, with Anthropic at 34.5% last quarter and able to walk next year, even as AI now outpaces launch and connectivity in filings.

Watch three markers next: whether agency payments really dip below 10% this quarter, how Anthropic's share holds up, and if that "something like" 70% fourth quarter jump shows in reported numbers. The bottom line: rapid growth, a changing customer list, and contract durability are now the swing factors.

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