Treasuries bounce, helped by oil and gilts
Bonds finally caught a bid after the Fed's rate increase, with yields dropping by no less than five basis points from the front to the back of the curve. The 10-year declined by eight basis points to 4.95%, halting an eight-session climb, as traders interpreted the first increase in three years as enhancing the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility. A retreat in oil from highs reached in mid-May, along with strength in UK government bonds that drove long-maturity gilt yields lower by over 10 basis points, added to the tailwind. Two- and five-year Treasury yields also pulled back from multiyear highs set Wednesday after the decision.
Fed signals and the market's read
The central bank raised its target range to 3.75%-4%, a widely anticipated move. What stirred pricing was Chairman Kevin Warsh's stance on inflation, which shifted market-implied odds toward at least one additional increase this year and possibly up to two more in 2027. The quarterly, anonymized projections covering rates and the economy published Wednesday showed a median of one additional hike this year, and Warsh said he did not contribute to those projections. Uncertainty still hangs over the path ahead because Warsh has preferred offering limited forward guidance.
Heading into the decision, even a small chance of no move was seen as a recipe for a jump in long-term yields as compensation for future inflation risk. "The Fed had no choice but to give the market a hike or risk a much bigger bond market selloff," said Laffer Tengler Investments' head of fixed income, Byron Anderson. Positioning is split: At BNP Paribas SA, Guneet Dhingra advised shorting the 30-year, saying investors doubt the Fed will return rates to restrictive territory. And from the buy side, Neuberger Berman's Olumide Owolabi said, "We expect interest rates to stabilize at these elevated levels with market already pricing more hikes than projected by the Fed and would be opportunistic in duration adds."
Inflation check and the TIPS setup
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge was 3.7% in July, near the highest since 2023 and still above the 2% long-run target. Warsh said the summer readings do not indicate that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.
The Treasury rally trimmed the expected yield for today's 1 p.m. New York auction of 10-year TIPS, yet it remains on track to deliver the highest auction yield since 2008. Ten-year TIPS yields sit around 2.64%.
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The prior 10-year TIPS sale in July cleared at 2.438%, the most since October 2008, when another sale came at 2.85% during the financial crisis amid severe strains in TIPS liquidity. Even so, TIPS have outperformed on a relative basis since late June, when oil prices began to rebound.
Global bond shifts set the backdrop
This has been a worldwide bond story. The average yield on global government debt hit a 19-year high this week as rising Middle East tensions lifted oil and stoked inflation expectations. In the UK, the Bank of England scrapped its intention to offload long-maturity gilts within its quantitative-tightening program, relieving strain after 10- and 30-year yields had climbed to levels last seen in 2007 and 1998.
The 30-year gilt rate slid by up to 13 basis points to 5.73%, lengthening the retreat from the 5.95% high on Sept. 15; Germany's 10-year yield also eased three basis points to 3.48%. The Bank of England also kept its policy rate steady Thursday, noting that an increase could be required should inflation pressures strengthen due to the conflict in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan began a two-day meeting, and every respondent in a Bloomberg survey expected a rate increase to 1.25% from 1%.
For bondholders, the curve is telling two stories. "For the bond market, this is likely to cast a long shadow rather than create a short-lived storm," according to Hebe Chen of Vantage Global Prime. Shorter maturities are recalibrating to the risk of further Fed tightening, whereas the far end is contending with inflation, sizable supply, and fiscal concerns. Translation for everyday portfolios: rate paths and inflation expectations are still doing the driving, so price swings can cluster where those pressures bite the most.
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