Softcat Just Raised Its Profit Forecast Twice In One Year On AI Demand

Softcat sells computer hardware and software to UK businesses. That's the entire business - acting as the middleman between Microsoft, HP, and the IT teams that actually deploy the gear.

On Friday, Softcat's stock jumped as much as 13% on the kind of guidance upgrade you usually see at chipmakers, not at the company selling the chips to the buyer.

What Changed

Softcat raised its full-year underlying operating profit guidance for the second time this year, less than six months after the first upgrade.

It now expects mid-teens growth in profit, up from high single-digit growth. For Q3, the three months ended April 30, the company posted strong double-digit growth in both gross profit and underlying operating profit.

Jefferies analyst Charles Brennan said the magnitude of the upgrade implies another 4 to 5% upside to current consensus estimates, which were already running ahead of management's previous guidance.

In plain English - Wall Street had been quietly raising its numbers on Softcat. The company just confirmed they should be raising them more.

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The AI Angle

Softcat doesn't make AI chips, doesn't train models, and doesn't run any of the AI itself.

It sells the servers, networking gear, and software that corporate customers need to run AI workloads inside their own data centers. That role turns out to be a real business when every enterprise IT team in the UK is trying to ship an AI pilot at the same time.

Demand for AI-enabled infrastructure is broad-based, the company said, with particular strength in corporate customers - the segment with the biggest IT budgets.

The other tailwind is memory shortages. With memory chips in tight supply, corporate buyers are pulling orders forward to lock in deliveries instead of waiting and risking a stockout, which is pushing future revenue into the current year.

The Risks

Softcat flagged two risks worth watching alongside the upgrade.

First, the same memory shortages that are pulling orders forward could choke supply if they get worse, which would turn a tailwind into a headwind almost overnight. Second, the broader macro picture - higher UK rates, slower European growth - hasn't gone away.

Brennan's note also raised a question about next year. If FY26 is benefiting from pulled-forward demand, FY27 has to fill that hole somehow.

What To Watch

The bigger debate is whether AI infrastructure spending is a real multi-year cycle or a 2026 catch-up surge. Softcat's data point says cycle, but the next two quarters will say whether the market believes it.

A lot of the so-called AI winners so far have been chipmakers. Softcat's run says the resellers and integrators are eating now too.

For now, the second-derivative AI plays are working.

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