After a brief pickup in June and July, OPEC's output fell sharply last month. A Bloomberg survey puts the group at 19.91 million barrels a day for August, down 900,000 barrels a day and snapping the short-lived recovery that came when producers managed to shuffle barrels out of the Persian Gulf. The setback underscores the impact of renewed friction between Washington and Tehran, with their six month conflict still without a diplomatic off-ramp.
Saudi supply is getting squeezed on two fronts. A rise in attacks targeting tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting Gulf shipments, while warnings from Yemen's Houthi rebels are constricting Red Sea exports on the fallback route Riyadh has used. A string of claimed Houthi strikes prompted Saudi Arabia to shut down multiple energy sites in the nation's south on Tuesday. In that environment, Brent crude futures in London are moving toward $100 a barrel.
According to Bloomberg's survey, Saudi crude output declined in August by 1.12 million barrels a day, landing at 6.98 million a day - the lowest since May. Provisional tanker tracking compiled by Bloomberg, Kpler and Vortexa indicates the kingdom's observed crude exports fell by about one third, reaching 3.03 million barrels a day.
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There were small offsets. Iraq increased output by 270,000 barrels a day to 2.98 million, and Venezuela added 70,000 barrels a day to reach 1.23 million a day - the best in seven years - as the US tightens its grip on the country's oil sector. Late last month, President Donald Trump announced an agreement under which the US would take majority control over a vast amount of Venezuela's oil wealth, and individuals with knowledge of the matter say Caracas is seriously weighing an exit from OPEC, just months after the United Arab Emirates' departure.
At the weekend, a sub group of major OPEC+ members agreed to keep October output targets unchanged after a string of largely symbolic quota hikes. On paper, those hikes completed the reversal of 2023's cuts, but the blockage at Hormuz is hindering actual increases. Next up is a production capacity audit to set 2027 limits, due by the end of this month and slated for ministers to consider in late November.
Tighter supply and security risks can filter into fuel costs and the prices of everyday goods. With Brent inching toward triple digits and OPEC juggling logistics and politics, energy linked parts of your budget could see more bumps. Watch how long shipping threats persist and whether OPEC+ can turn paper quotas into real barrels.
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