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Oil Drops After Trump Signals Restraint and Openness to Talks

Andre Savage
Published Sep 21, 2026
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Summary:
  • Crude slid for a fourth straight session Monday, with WTI down 2.7% to $97.59 a barrel at 7:48 a.m. ET and Brent off 2.8% to $101.
  • The pullback followed reports that President Donald Trump chose not to carry out airstrikes in Yemen for the time being and signaled a willingness to pursue diplomacy with Iran, including a possible UNGA meeting.
  • JPMorgan said Middle East shipments have stayed firm despite Saudi pipeline disruptions, averaging 17.1 million bpd over the last 10 days, which is 6.1 million bpd under the 2025 average.

What happened to prices

Oil's losing streak hit day four as geopolitical heat eased a notch. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures fell 2.7% to $97.59 a barrel as of 7:48 a.m. ET, while global benchmark Brent slipped 2.8% to $101.

Snapshot quotes showed ICE Brent at 100.80, down 3.07 (2.96%) at 2:48 PM BST, and WTI at 96.56, down 3.74 (3.73%) at 9:48 AM EDT. Even after the slide, crude is still up more than 11% this month.

Why the market moved

Trump has, for now, decided against bombing Iran-aligned Houthi militants in Yemen despite appeals from Saudi Arabia, according to Trump administration officials cited by The New York Times. He also said on Fox News that he might agree to meet Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at the UN General Assembly this week. In that interview, he described himself as in a "deciding mode" and predicted "very big things" would unfold soon regarding the US-Iran war.

Supply, flows, and what to watch

Despite attacks that led Saudi Arabia to shut its East-West pipeline, crude moving out of the Middle East has held up. JPMorgan said on Sept. 18 that shipments from the Middle East have held up better than expected, pegging the past 10-day average at 17.1 million barrels per day, which is 6.1 million bpd under the 2025 average. Looking ahead, Daniel Takieddine, co-founder and CEO of Sky Links Capital Group, said prices will likely track how quickly exports normalize and whether diplomacy advances. He added that "any setback or renewed deterioration in shipping conditions would tighten the physical market and restore upward pressure on prices."

Calm heads and steady plans help preserve gains and find future opportunities. Join Briefs Finance CEO Jaspreet Singh on September 29th for a FREE live investor workshop, How to Profit From A Dollar That's Losing its Value, where he shows how we're spotting investment opportunities as the dollar falls. Save your spot.

What this means for your wallet

A regular review of goals keeps your savings working toward what matters. Our CEO Jaspreet Singh is hosting a FREE live investor workshop, How to Profit From A Dollar That's Losing its Value, on September 29th. Sign up free to join him live.

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Blogs

September 18, 2026
Kevin Warsh Just Defied Trump: What the Fed Rate Hike Means for Your Money
By Cierra Seay
  • The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023 in a unanimous vote led by Kevin Warsh, the chairman President Trump appointed to cut them.
  • Higher rates make the $40 trillion national debt, business loan resets and mortgages more expensive, but they strengthen the dollar and pay investors holding cash.
  • The war with Iran is pushing up oil, grocery and chip prices, another hike is likely in 2026, and recession talk is about to get louder.
Read More
September 17, 2026
Why America Bailed Out the Yen: The Japan Carry Trade, the Dollar and Your Mortgage Rate
By Milena Thomas
  • In July 2026 the US sent money to steady the yen because Japan is the largest foreign owner of US debt, and Washington needs Japan to keep lending.
  • For decades the Japan carry trade let Wall Street borrow yen at essentially 0% and pour it into US stocks, real estate and Treasuries, and rising Japanese rates are shutting that off.
  • A weaker yen means fewer buyers for the dollar and for US debt, which pushes Treasury rates up and drags mortgage, car loan and credit card rates up with them.
Read More
September 16, 2026
Treasury Yields Are Spiking Because Lenders Are Backing Away From U.S. Debt
By Jackson Moreland
  • The U.S. is paying its highest 30-year borrowing rate in about two decades because its biggest lenders, the Fed, foreign governments, and banks, are all pulling back from Treasuries.
  • Every mortgage, car loan, credit card, and business loan is priced off the 10-year Treasury yield, so when Washington pays more to borrow, so do you.
  • With about $40 trillion of debt against a $32 trillion economy, the country either outgrows its debt or slides into a doom loop, and investors need a plan for both.
Read More
September 15, 2026
Fiat Currency Runs on Trust, and the World Just Stopped Trusting the Dollar
By Nate Gregory
  • Gold has overtaken US treasuries as the world's top reserve asset, and central banks are now buying less US debt and more gold.
  • The US dollar is a fiat currency, meaning it's backed by a promise rather than gold, so it loses value when fewer countries want to hold it.
  • Whether the US economy or its national debt grows faster from here decides which assets stand to benefit next.
Read More
September 14, 2026
Why RAM Prices Are Soaring - and Where the Money Is Moving
By Cierra Seay
  • Memory chips - the RAM inside phones, laptops, fridges, and trucks - are in a shortage Tim Cook called a 100-year flood, and some memory prices have climbed about 90% in a single quarter.
  • Four forces hit at once: AI demand, a production shutdown in 2023, build times that push any fix to 2028 at the earliest, and a bombed helium plant in Qatar.
  • The last two supply shocks ended in aggressive Fed rate hikes and market drops of around 45% and 20%, and this time Washington is spending heavily to bring memory production home.
Read More
September 11, 2026
How Is the Economy Doing? Washington Says It's Fixed, but the Numbers Don't Agree
By Nate Gregory
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the economy is fixed because lower earners' incomes are now rising faster than top earners'.
  • The Atlanta Fed and Bank of America show different numbers, and Hilton, Marriott, and McDonald's can't agree on what they're seeing either.
  • Whichever side is right, the economy is built to make investors rich, and inflation is how it does it.
Read More
September 10, 2026
US National Debt Hits $40 Trillion: Why the Economy Hasn't Collapsed Yet
By Nate Gregory
  • The US national debt crossed $40 trillion in 2026 and is growing faster than the economy. The debt to GDP ratio now sits at 125%, the highest outside the pandemic and higher than World War II.
  • On September 9, 2026, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent rolled out an emergency plan for the government to lend money to itself. Ray Dalio now says the dollar has roughly three years before real pain.
  • Empires rarely default. They debase. Since 1971, median household income grew about 8x while houses grew 17x and the S&P 500 grew 360x, so investors got richer while workers fell behind.
Read More
September 9, 2026
Your 401k Is Fueling the AI Bubble
By Andre Savage
  • About $10 trillion of 401k money sits in a $77 trillion stock market, mostly through target date funds and S&P 500 funds. Roughly 30% of every S&P 500 dollar lands in five AI-heavy tech stocks.
  • Four bubble signals run hotter today than before the 2000 crash: top-ten concentration, tech's share of the index, the Buffett Indicator, and how much of the market index funds own.
  • You only lock in an AI bubble loss if you sell. The 2022, 2020, 2008, and 2000 crashes were all buying windows for long-term investors, and the US-China AI race means government money could keep flowing in.
Read More
September 9, 2026
What Is Wealth Preservation? How To Protect Your Money From Anything
By Nate Gregory
  • Wealth preservation is an investing strategy built around keeping the money you've already made instead of chasing growth.
  • It leans on assets that hold steady when markets fall - gold, Treasury bonds, and companies that keep earning through wars, crashes, and pandemics.
  • The tradeoff is real: you give up some upside, and the two key numbers to check are maximum drawdown and correlation to the market.
Read More
September 8, 2026
Why Is Everything So Expensive? Why Prices May Never Come Back Down
By Cierra Seay
  • Official inflation is 3.4% and prices are up 32% since 2020, but rent (41%), gas (47%), car insurance (64%) and ground beef (79%) all outran the 28% median wage.
  • The Federal Reserve targets 2% inflation on purpose. Rising prices push extra dollars to investors and shrink the real cost of a $40 trillion national debt.
  • Investors who simply owned the S&P 500 gained about 150% over the same six years, and the Fed's September 16 decision will show whether it protects the dollar or the economy first.
Read More
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