The World Cup should bring more than a million visitors to the New York area. It is also handing New Jersey a transit bill that FIFA will not help pay.
The host of the final is fighting the people who run the tournament over money.
All eight matches, including the July 19 final, run at MetLife in East Rutherford. That makes the state a main stage for the whole tournament.
New Jersey expects to spend about $48 million getting NJ Transit ready. That covers extra trains and security to move as many as 40,000 fans per match.
Governor Mikie Sherrill says FIFA offered nothing toward that.
"FIFA is providing $0 for transportation to the World Cup. Zero," she said.
She also noted the event should make $11 billion. Single seats at the final run up to $10,000. The gap between those numbers is what has her upset.
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Organizers forecast a $3.3 billion boost to the local economy and more than 26,000 jobs. Some economists think that is wishful math.
These forecasts often get puffed up. Groups do it to win the right to host, says Seton Hall economist Danielle Zanzalari.
History backs the doubt, and the past gives a clear case. At the 1994 World Cup, host cities fell short of their forecasts.
The miss there averaged $712 million. There is a fresh warning sign too.
About 80% of U.S. hotels saw World Cup bookings come in light back in April. Resale prices tell the same story.
Some seats for the final are listed above $30,000.
New Jersey is staring at a $1.5 billion budget gap, where spending already runs past income. That hole traces back to lost federal Medicaid money and fading Covid aid.
On top of the transit money, the state set aside another $120 million for things like building and security. It also handed the local host committee $35 million.
Fans are feeling it as well. Train fares to MetLife were first set at $150, about 12 times the normal price, before the state cut them to $98 and covered the gap with ad money.
The deal was signed under the last governor, Phil Murphy. Sherrill now owns the bill in her first budget.
Sherrill's first budget will show how much of this lands on taxpayers. The promised windfall is the other half of the story, and the hotel numbers hint it may show up small.
How much the regional economy really grows is the part no one can promise. A great month of soccer does not promise a great month for the books.
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