In July, every liquefied natural gas cargo delivered to Belgium came from Russia, because the Middle East war cut off other suppliers and sent European deliveries into decline. Bloomberg ship-tracking data puts the volume at roughly 0.4 million tons.
Belgium ranked No. 5 among Europe's LNG importers last year. The previous time Russia was the sole LNG provider to Belgium came in early 2021, before Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, when European economies were only just emerging from the Covid pandemic. A war in the Middle East made it happen again.
Russia supplied the whole market, but the market was a lot smaller than it used to be. The country's Russian LNG inflows, too, were below their volume from the first part of the year.
Fighting in the Middle East disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for the world's gas supply. That cut LNG deliveries to Europe and kept prices high. With Hormuz shipping still disrupted, prices stayed stubbornly high, prompting most continental buyers to put off winter-storage purchases. Buyers looking for substitutes for Middle East cargoes have boosted Russian supply.
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Belgium is not alone in leaning on Russia.
Russia remains the EU's second-largest LNG supplier, behind the United States. Pipelines from Norway and the UK also feed Belgium, so Russia is not its sole source of gas. For LNG specifically, though, Russia was the only seller in town.
Belgium's position illustrates the broader split in European gas purchasing. Norwegian and UK pipeline supplies continue to reach Belgium, but when other seaborne routes close, its LNG imports can shift heavily toward Russia. That is why the country's reliance on Russian LNG can shift so quickly.
Russia's status as a top EU LNG supplier highlights the challenge for the bloc's phaseout plan, which calls for a full ban next year while current supply routes remain under threat.
The European Union has a plan to end this dependence. A prohibition on short-term Russian LNG deals has been in place since April. EU officials say that timeline is still on track, even though some industry watchers have questioned whether the ban can hold if Middle East supply problems continue. The EU has already issued a waiver allowing Russian LNG to pass through its territory to third countries.
That waiver underscores the difficulty of next year's full ban. Even if direct purchases are halted, cargoes can still land at EU terminals and move to third countries, so Russian LNG may keep flowing through European infrastructure.
The nearer worry is winter. Europe's gas stockpiles for the upcoming heating season are at their lowest seasonal level since 2009, the earliest year in the records. High prices discouraged buyers from filling storage, and the war keeps supply uncertain. Heading into cold months, the buffer is thin.
Natural gas futures were quoted at 2.76, with a 0.55% change indicated.
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