The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices fell in June, surprising economists who had expected a smaller decline.
Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, landed at 2.6% annually. On a monthly basis, core prices were completely flat, while economists had predicted a 0.2% increase.
Navy Federal Credit Union's chief economist, Heather Long, commented, "June finally brought some relief on inflation." That relief came from two places: energy and services.
The latest inflation data arrives after more than a year of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes aimed at cooling the economy. The central bank has raised its benchmark rate from near zero to over 5% since early 2022. June's monthly CPI decline - the largest since April 2020 - offers a glimmer of hope that price pressures are finally easing. However, Fed officials have cautioned that a single month of good data does not constitute a trend, and they remain focused on returning inflation to the 2% target.
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Energy prices fell sharply in June. The energy index fell 5.7% over one month, the most severe monthly decline since April 2020. Gasoline and fuel oil both decreased by more than 9% in June. This decline was partly driven by a roughly 25% drop in oil prices during June, as reduced Middle East tensions pushed costs lower.
Services also helped. Shelter costs rose just 0.1% in June. Transportation services fell 0.3%, and apparel prices dropped 0.6%.
Used cars and trucks slipped 0.2%. New vehicles were flat. Food prices rose 0.2%.
The concern, as Heather Long put it, is that "this relief will be short-lived as the war in Iran re-starts." Last week, President Donald Trump announced that the ceasefire with Iran was no longer in effect, as both sides engaged in attacks. On Monday, oil prices surged, and they continued to climb on Tuesday.
The Federal Reserve is paying close attention. New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said in prepared remarks to Congress: "The Fed's number one objective is to get monetary policy right - or as near to it as we possibly can. That is our clear and constant aim, the star we steer by. And if we get policy right - and we will - the inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past."
Christopher Waller, a Fed Governor, stated on Monday that several months of favorable data would be needed to persuade him that inflation is returning to the central bank's 2% target.
If the conflict drags on, the odds of a rate hike could increase. The investment director at IFM Investors, Ryan Weldon, commented, "The longer the conflict drags on, the higher the probability that the Fed will have to hike and back its promise from Warsh's first meeting as Chair to 'deliver on price stability.'"
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