Oil prices move on fear as much as fact. On Wednesday, they got both.
Crude jumped nearly 3% to about $90.76 a barrel after Trump vowed to keep hitting Iran hard.
Brent, the global benchmark, rose past $93 a barrel.
Behind those numbers sits a bigger one: the war has already wiped out about a billion barrels of supply.
That is more oil than the U.S. burns in about seven weeks.
A Supply Shock Unlike Any Before
Rystad Energy, an energy research firm, calls this the worst oil supply shock in modern history.
Six Gulf producers now have 11.8 million barrels a day shut off.
Saudi Arabia is the biggest loss at about 3.8 million barrels a day, with Iraq and Kuwait close behind.
No other shock in modern times has pulled this much oil off the market at once.
That's a huge slice of what the whole world burns in a single day.
And Rystad warns that each extra month of war could erase another 350 million barrels.
Most of that supply should come back once the fighting stops. Rystad expects about 85% of it back by October if the guns go quiet.
The catch is that nobody knows when that will be.
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Why Trump's Threats Move The Tape
The latest jump came after Trump said on TV, "We hit them hard yesterday, and we're going to hit them hard again today."
He had already posted that Iran will "pay the price" for dragging out talks.
Traders heard the same thing in both messages: the supply problem isn't getting fixed soon.
So they bid the price up.
Gas at the pump has been climbing through the war, and another spike would hit drivers first.
What Higher Oil Means For You
Pricier oil doesn't stop at the pump.
It seeps into airfares, shipping, and the price of almost anything that moves on a truck.
Businesses tend to pass those higher costs along to shoppers.
For investors, that's the link between a war half a world away and the inflation they feel at home.
Even China, the world's biggest oil buyer, has cut its imports to cope.
It's also why some people park money in safe havens like gold when oil spikes this fast.
And it's why they brace for more volatile markets while the war drags on.
What To Watch
The key is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow lane that carries a big share of the world's oil.
A single scare in that lane can move prices around the world.
If it stays choked, $90 oil may start to look cheap.
Brent already cleared $93 on Wednesday, and U.S. crude wasn't far behind.
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