After talks in Washington aimed at steadying relations, the U.S. said China committed to purchase at least 10 million tons of American coal in the coming year, with the same floor set for 2028. By both sides' standards, it was the most concrete promise to emerge from the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
They also said they would work toward friendlier tariff treatment on $30 billion worth of non‑sensitive goods, a bucket that includes U.S. coal and farm products. Notably absent were any deals covering U.S. crude oil or liquefied natural gas.
This is more of a layup than a stretch. China took in over 12 million tons of U.S. coal as recently as 2024, before largely pausing purchases when a new tariff fight flared in early 2025. "Looks realistic against actual 2024 trade volumes," Citigroup analyst Xiangrong Yu wrote.
Put in context, 10 million tons would amount to 11% of U.S. coal exports in 2025, only 2% of China's coal imports, and a sliver compared with nearly 5 billion tons of total demand in China. The country mines and burns more than half of the world's coal and, while it is the biggest importer, most of its needs are met at home.
A little history helps: energy and commodities were the centerpiece of the 2020 Phase One deal, when Beijing pledged to boost U.S. purchases by $200 billion. The pandemic and fraying relations meant actual buying fell far short.
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Throughout the year, China's domestic coal output has been weak after a fatal incident in Shanxi province in May, a key mining region. Through August, nationwide output fell 3.2%, with Shanxi down 13%. Over the weekend, Shanxi Governor Lu Dongliang chaired a session on keeping mines safe and running, urging companies to make every effort to restore supplies, according to Shanxi Radio and Television Station.
Beijing issued a similar push earlier this month. Lu, formerly chairman of China Aluminum Corp., took office as governor last year at age 52, placing him among the youngest provincial leaders.
Overseas, the top supplier Indonesia has cut back shipments to China, with volumes down by about a quarter so far this year as Jakarta tightens oversight of resource exports. Prices reflect the squeeze: benchmark thermal coal in China is at a three‑year high, and coking coal futures traded in Dalian ended last week 34% higher year to date, though they slipped on Monday.
Beyond coal, the macro backdrop is mixed. Earnings growth at China's industrial firms cooled for the fourth month in a row in August. Bloomberg Intelligence says China's copper premium is likely to ease after touching a four‑year peak, while steel demand is positioned for a seasonal pickup. Markets barely budged after the Trump‑Xi event, which delivered ceremony over sweeping changes.
If China follows through, it restores trade flows seen in 2024 and meaningfully supports U.S. coal shippers without budging China's overall energy balance. The more immediate signals for prices and producers are coming from China's mine safety clampdowns, Indonesia's tighter export management, and where thermal and coking benchmarks settle next. Watch whether the purchases actually print, how quickly Shanxi brings volumes back, and if that three‑year‑high in prices holds or fades.
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