Canada's Industry Minister Warns US Tariff Support Could Outlast Trump

Joly's message and why it matters

Canada's Industry Minister Melanie Joly says tariffs are one of the few issues where Republicans and Democrats commonly line up. She also sees broad agreement on pulling back US involvement abroad and on immigration reform. Joly oversees Canada's aluminum, steel and auto sectors, all touched by Trump's Section 232 actions, and warned that bipartisan appetite for tariffs could keep Canadian firms facing hurdles in the US market beyond Trump's presidency.

Her pitch to American lawmakers is straightforward: duties on Canadian goods raise US costs by adding friction to tightly knit supply chains. "They are actually hurting themselves because it has an impact on cost of living, because of the close integration of our economies," she said.

Lobbying the states

Joly is one of several Canadian officials who have spent the past year and a half in the US pressing against Trump's trade stance. She met Illinois Governor JB Pritzker last week and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro in June, arguing that tariffs on Canadian products ultimately feed through to higher costs for American consumers.

How US politics are lining up

Many Democrats have knocked Trump's broad-brush tariffs and his posture toward Canada, but that doesn't mean they would automatically undo them. California Governor Gavin Newsom told CTV News last month he cannot guarantee Democrats would lift the tariffs, while adding their trade approach would be "nothing like" Trump's.

In 2025, Democratic Senators Elissa Slotkin, Gary Peters and Tammy Baldwin urged that US trade deals - the North American trade pact among them - be reassessed and updated to secure the best results for American workers. With the midterms coming up, officials from both parties have urged Trump to ease up on the clash with Canada and steer tariff efforts toward countering China's rising strength in areas like autos. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer wrote in the Wall Street Journal, "We need to be smart and strategic about trade policy, not trigger-happy. Renaming Lake Ontario won't make a car cheaper to build or help a family pay its rent." Republican Senator Susan Collins, who is seeking reelection in Maine, has also called for a deescalation of the Canada US trade fight.

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The fiscal pull to keep tariffs

Whether tariffs stick may hinge on Washington's finances. The federal deficit is roughly 6% of GDP. Through this point in the year, federal receipts total $212 billion in tariffs and select excise taxes, the Bipartisan Policy Center reports, compared with $65 billion over the same stretch in 2024.

Some Canadian stakeholders contend Ottawa ought to aim retaliatory tariffs at US battleground states to ratchet up political pressure on Republicans. Responding, Brian Clow - who formerly served as a senior Canadian official focused on trade and the bilateral relationship with the US - said the midterms should not determine how Canada pursues tariff relief. "Nobody should expect the Democrats to save Canada or come to our rescue when it comes to Donald Trump's tariffs," he said, noting that while some voices oppose the policy, many are not speaking out and may even back it.

What this means for your portfolio

Tariffs are not just a Trump-era plotline. With bipartisan momentum in Washington and real money flowing into federal coffers, these policies can stick around. Canada's aluminum, steel and auto industries are already living with that reality, and the politics suggest this risk stretches beyond one election cycle.

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