Warsh Just Killed Forward Guidance At His First Fed Meeting

Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting cut the FOMC statement in half and killed forward guidance in the same morning. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped in response.

The New FOMC Statement Is Just 130 Words

Past Fed statements ran past 300 words. They told markets which way the next move was likely to lean, and they gave investors a roadmap for the months ahead.

Warsh's first statement gave them neither.

The new statement runs about 130 words. There is no vote count, just a note that the call was unanimous, and there is little real color on where prices are headed.

"It just gives you the facts, as best we can judge it," Warsh said in his press conference. The Fed will act when the data calls for it, not when it wants to tip its hand.

David Wessel, a senior fellow at Brookings, told CNBC that Warsh "did a pretty good job" of stripping out forward guidance. BMO rates strategist Ian Lyngen said the statement was "significantly shortened" and gave only a "cursory" read on the economy.

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Markets Read The Move As Hawkish

The FOMC voted 12-0 to leave the federal funds rate - the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans, which sets the floor for most borrowing - in its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%. The Fed has now held rates steady at every meeting this year.

That hold follows three rate cuts at the end of last year and steady holds in January, March, and April. Inflation has stayed above the 2% goal, in part due to higher energy prices.

The silence was the policy move. Without forward guidance, investors had to guess at the next step, and they guessed up.

Treasury yields rose after the news. The odds of a rate hike before year-end climbed alongside them.

Warsh has signaled he wants the Fed to be quieter, more humble, and laser-focused on price stability. The early read from markets is that quiet usually means tighter.

Warsh has long argued the Fed talks too much. He thinks heavy guidance pulls the central bank too deep into markets and can lead to policy errors.

His first meeting put that theory into practice.

What To Watch

The next Fed meeting is the real test. With no forward guidance, every price report and jobs report between now and then carries more weight.

Investors will swing more on each data print as they figure out how Warsh actually reacts.

The era of being walked to the call is over.

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