President Trump picked Kevin Warsh to run the Fed partly because he wants lower rates. Warsh's first meeting this week is expected to end with no cut at all.
This week's Fed meeting is the first led by Kevin Warsh, Trump's pick to run the central bank. Warsh has hinted before that he'd think about cutting rates.
The problem is inflation. Prices are rising about twice as fast as the Fed's 2% goal.
Cutting rates when inflation runs that hot can pour fuel on the fire. That's why some experts think the bigger risk isn't a cut.
It's a hike. Markets right now see almost no chance of a cut this week.
We break down what the Fed's choices actually do to your wallet in Market Briefs, and signing up comes with a free investing masterclass.
The Fed's key rate sits between 3.5% and 3.75%. It has held there for a while.
Most traders see it staying put this week. Almost no one bets on a cut.
Warsh took the top job in late May. He is the 17th person to lead the Fed.
His first big test comes fast. He runs his first rate meeting just weeks into the role.
Trump has called for much lower rates. Warsh must now weigh that wish against the data.
A hike would be a shock. Few expect one this week, but the door isn't shut.
Warsh and the old Fed don't even measure inflation the same way. Most of the Fed watches "core" inflation, which strips out food and gas prices since those jump around a lot.
That group includes the leaving chair, Jerome Powell. Warsh leans on a different gauge, the "trimmed mean".
It throws out whatever prices swung the most that month, high or low. Why does that matter?
Right now the two gauges point in opposite ways. Core is rising. The trimmed mean is falling. Pick the second one, and the case for cutting rates looks a lot better.
This isn't just a numbers game. The gauge Warsh trusts could decide whether your loans get cheaper or not.
For households, the direction matters more than the jargon. High rates make borrowing pricey, and high prices make everything else pricey.
Right now Americans are stuck with both. One estimate from a congressional committee put the cost of tariffs and the Iran war at more than $3,100 per household since 2025.
High rates touch real life. They lift the cost of credit cards, car loans, and home loans.
Warsh also speaks to the press after the meeting. Investors will hunt for clues on where rates head next.
Either way, this meeting sets the tone for the year. Markets will trade on every word he says.
Warsh got the job partly on the promise of cheaper money. This week shows how fast he's willing to deliver it.
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