OPEC Output Rebounds Toward Pre War Levels as Saudi Turns the Taps

What changed in October

OPEC's crude output advanced toward pre war levels with an increase of 930,000 barrels a day in October, reaching 22.8 million. That puts the group at roughly 88% of what these same members produced in February.

More barrels have taken the heat out of prices. Brent futures dropped this week to trade near 98 dollars a barrel, with an additional nudge lower as President Donald Trump flagged potential de escalation following his party's midterm election setback. Prices for physical crude shipments - priced relative to futures - have slumped across the Middle East, North Sea and Africa as supply has grown while demand remains weak.

Who added, who cut

Saudi Arabia delivered the bulk of the rebound, boosting output by 970,000 barrels a day to 9.2 million. That is still about 800,000 a day below early year rates, but exports averaged 7 million a day, approaching pre war levels. The kingdom has routed a greater number of tankers via the Strait of Hormuz and stepped up loadings from its Red Sea coast even as ongoing hostilities triggered by the US Iran conflict persist.

Iraq posted the next biggest increase, adding 140,000 barrels a day to reach 4.15 million, followed by Kuwait, up 130,000 to average 2.0 million. Offsetting some of those gains were declines in Nigeria and Iran. The Islamic Republic saw a reduction of 120,000 barrels a day, leaving production at 1.9 million - the lowest in Bloomberg's monthly series dating to 1989. Satellite imagery indicates there have been no tankers at Iran's main loading hubs, including Kharg Island, since late August, and the US is still enforcing a blockade on the country's ports.

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Prices, methods and what to watch

The rebound in OPEC supply has eased prices from last month's highs, a modest assist for fuel costs worldwide. Bloomberg's production survey combines ship tracking, official information and estimates from Rapidan Energy Group, FGE NexantECA, Kpler Ltd. and Rystad Energy AS.

Looking ahead, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said in Abu Dhabi the company aims to "maximize production going forward in the fourth quarter." Separately, OPEC and its allies are reviewing what each member can technically pump, with an eye to setting 2027 output targets when ministers meet on Nov. 29. For your portfolio, watch Riyadh's supply stance and the 2027 target review - they are likely to steer crude benchmarks and energy equities into year end.

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