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China's PMI slips back into contraction as fourth quarter opens

Milena Thomas
Published Oct 31, 2026
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Summary:
  • October's official manufacturing PMI printed 49.3, down from 50.1 in September and short of the 49.9 median in a Bloomberg economist survey.
  • Services and construction cooled too, with the non-manufacturing gauge at 49.7 versus 50.2 in September.
  • Beijing has rolled out targeted support and signaled it can do more as it works to keep growth within the 4.5% to 5% annual goal.

What the data shows

China's factory pulse eased in October, with the National Bureau of Statistics reporting a manufacturing PMI of 49.3 on Saturday. That put the index back below the 50 line that separates growth from contraction, and it missed the 49.9 median projected in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

The slowdown was not just on the factory floor. The official non-manufacturing PMI, which tracks activity in construction and services, dipped to 49.7 from 50.2 a month earlier.

Where the weakness showed up

The statistics bureau flagged softness on both supply and demand. The production subindex fell 1.9 percentage points to 49.8, while new orders declined 1.1 percentage points to 49.4. Large manufacturers were still expanding at 50.2, but medium and small firms registered 48.4 and 47.5.

One bright spot: high-tech manufacturing stayed in growth mode with a PMI of 51.3, even as the broader factory reading contracted.

Savvy investors look for practical ways to gain an edge in uncertainty. We're hosting our first ever investor livestream on 11/17 to show you how to use ChatGPT and Claude to invest like a pro, hosted by Briefs Finance CEO Jaspreet Singh. Save your seat.

Policy moves and why it matters

The data suggest momentum faded as the fourth quarter got underway, following a mild rebound over the preceding three months. In the past few weeks, authorities have intensified tailored assistance - expanding credit access for small businesses and consumers, extending targeted home-loan support to certain buyers, and lifting the amount of bonds that local governments are allowed to issue.

Authorities have also kicked off building work on large-scale infrastructure - examples include Six Networks - and they have signaled a readiness to take further actions if needed to keep growth in line with the 4.5% to 5% target.

Understanding how new tools can support decisions helps investors stay prepared. On 11/17, our CEO Jaspreet Singh goes live for our first ever investor livestream on how to use ChatGPT and Claude to invest like a pro. Register to join him.

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