What Kalshi changed
Kalshi Inc., a leading US prediction market operator, is rolling out tighter controls for 18 to 20 year olds. Those accounts will be automatically designated as special accounts with tools the company says are meant to curb risky behavior among young adults.
The package includes a $2,500 monthly deposit ceiling. For users in that bracket with balances above $1,000, trying to stake more than 25 percent of their balance on a single contract will trigger a prompt to diversify.
How Kalshi explains the move
"Like the stock exchange, Kalshi is available only to traders 18 and older," Chief Operating Officer Luana Lopes Lara said. "Still, we know that young adults are often new to markets and may need more education and safeguards, so we are expanding our protections for this group of users."
Before this shift, deposit limits were mostly set by the users themselves. A spokesperson said trading by 18 to 20 year olds was already being monitored, and when risky patterns are detected, the firm does direct outreach with suggestions to slow them down. The company said it is collaborating with Parent ProTech and ConnectSafely on parent-oriented materials aimed at younger users.
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The pushback and the policy stakes
Over the last two years, prediction markets have grown rapidly, and platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket face pressure from regulators and consumer advocates who argue these exchanges function like gambling and should be subject to restrictions, or even outright prohibitions, like the measures imposed by state gaming commissions. In most states, gambling is illegal for people under 21.
Benjamin Schiffrin - the director overseeing securities policy at Better Markets, a group that pushes for investor safeguards - described the deposit limits as "a pretty stunning admission from Kalshi as to the real nature of its platform." "It says that like a stock exchange, Kalshi is available only to traders 18 and older because it wants to make it seem like Kalshi is just like a stock exchange," he said. "But stock exchanges don't limit how much people 18 and older can invest."
Schiffrin said Kalshi's safeguards ought to mirror those used for conventional sportsbooks, noting the company's revenue mix is, in his view, largely driven by sports-focused event contracts. As early as 2027, the US Supreme Court could step in, with both prediction markets and state officials petitioning the court to hear the matter.
Why it matters for investors
The rulebook for event trading is unsettled, which means evolving guardrails, product tweaks around sports contracts, and headline risk that can ripple into volumes and liquidity. If you allocate to prediction markets, the regulatory path will be as important as the product roadmap.
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