Two camps, same goal, opposite levers
A push to steer AI policy has splintered into two well-financed factions. One, built around the Leading the Future network, backs quicker rollouts and consistent national rules. The other argues for tougher safety guardrails and more flexibility for states to regulate.
Both sides say they support innovation and agree that rules are needed, but they are clashing over deployment speed, how sweeping federal oversight should be, and the role of state power.
CNBC mapped the relevant federal committees on each side and summed their independent expenditures for or against congressional candidates, omitting state contests and nonprofit advocacy.
Primaries borrowed the crypto playbook
Crypto set the template. Backed by Coinbase, Ripple and Andreessen Horowitz, Fairshake and its pro-crypto allies poured more than $130 million into the 2024 cycle, and the candidates they supported won 53 of 58 contests - a 91% win rate, according to FEC filings and CoinDesk.
AI investors followed. In August 2025, Leading the Future debuted backed by commitments topping $100 million from Andreessen Horowitz, OpenAI President Greg Brockman and his wife, Anna, and Joe Lonsdale, a co-founder of Perplexity and Palantir. Co-led by Josh Vlasto, who worked with Fairshake last cycle, the network created Think Big for Democrats and American Mission for Republicans to back faster development and resist a patchwork of state rules. The implicit warning to lawmakers was straightforward: oppose that agenda and face major spending.
That approach drew a sharp critique from Sacha Haworth, who runs the Tech Oversight Project as its founder and executive director, who said, "The AI industry announced last year that they were going to rerun the crypto industry playbook by coming in swinging with oodles of money in order to bully lawmakers into submission."
The early wins came fast. In March's big primaries, American Mission helped propel three Republicans - Jessica Steinmann and Chris Gober in Texas, and Laurie Buckhout in North Carolina - after spending more than $500,000 on each, according to FEC filings.
A rival network was already forming. In February, Anthropic pledged $20 million for Public First Action, and in July it added another $20 million, specifying that the money may be used only for policy and public education and is off-limits for candidate elections. Even so, independently funded super PACs associated with Public First Action have spent millions to advance aligned priorities.
Investors who learn new tools can find clearer paths through uncertain markets. We're hosting our first ever investor livestream on 11/17 to show you how to use ChatGPT and Claude to invest like a pro, hosted by Briefs Finance CEO Jaspreet Singh. Save your seat.
New York's 12th District showed the split in sharp relief. Think Big put $8.3 million into efforts to block state Assemblymember Alex Bores, the sponsor of significant state AI safety legislation. Jobs and Democracy PAC, supported by Anthropic, countered with about $15 million to back him, while allied safety groups added millions more.
Think Big and Jobs and Democracy together put $23.3 million into that primary, about 40% of the two camps' total primary spending nationwide by CNBC's analysis. In the end, Micah Lasher defeated Bores, 39% to 35%. "They helped light a flame under the backlash that's now fueling so much of the midterm elections," Haworth said.
The general-election slowdown
Once the primaries ended, the money pace dropped. Across the primaries, the Leading the Future network logged roughly $26 million in independent expenditures, while the general-election tally was about $8 million. Safety-oriented organizations logged roughly $32.1 million for primaries and $6.9 million for the general election.
Another roughly $5.5 million went to runoffs and special elections. In all, about $78.5 million has gone to federal candidates this cycle, with roughly 74% concentrated in primaries.
Part of the slowdown reflects fewer competitive November races, and it has arrived as AI has become a harder political sell. According to a CNBC All-America Economic Survey, 52% of registered voters want companies to pause advanced AI development until Congress passes regulations, versus 32% who want to keep moving; 63% said they would oppose having an AI data center located within 10 miles of their home. "When evaluating risk versus reward right now, the backlash is just too big," said Freed.
The tug-of-war continues, just in fewer contests. This fall, safeguards-focused groups put $825,000 toward efforts against two Republicans who had previously gained from Leading the Future-aligned assistance in their primaries. Guardrails Alliance reported $412,500 apiece against Jay Feely in Arizona and Aaron Flint in Montana; American Mission had previously spent $616,400 backing Feely and $590,400 backing Flint in their primaries. Guardrails Alliance likewise disclosed roughly $412,000 spent opposing Democratic Rep. Jimmy Gomez in California; Leading the Future endorsed him, yet, per CNBC's analysis, reported no expenditures backing his campaign.
Florida's 25th District is the cleanest head-to-head. After the district was redrawn ahead of the 2026 election, Think Big spent $310,000 in the primary supporting Democrat Jared Moskowitz. Defending Our Values put almost $857,000 behind Republican Scott Singer and another $740,000 to block one of his primary rivals. Now Moskowitz and Singer meet in the general.
Why it matters for your portfolio
This is a policy fight with real budget lines. Together, the two AI factions have directed roughly $78.5 million to federal races, and most of that decided who even made it to November. If the faster-deployment camp adds allies next Congress, expect a push for uniform national rules; if the safeguards camp grows, prepare for stricter oversight and more state involvement. That shapes timelines for chips, cloud, model training and data centers across tech and infrastructure holdings.
A thoughtful edge comes from combining timeless judgment with smarter technology. On 11/17, our CEO Jaspreet Singh goes live for our first ever investor livestream on how to use ChatGPT and Claude to invest like a pro. Register to join him.
