What Saudi Arabia is proposing
Saudi officials are working with customers on a plan to allow long-term contracted oil to be loaded next year at locations beyond the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal would formalize a workaround the kingdom has leaned on during the Iran war as it tries to win more market share. People familiar with the talks say the negotiations remain in progress and need to be wrapped up by year-end. They also note that nothing has been definitively decided, and they requested anonymity because the negotiations are private.
How shipping and deliveries have changed
Deliveries under long-term contracts make up most of the kingdom's supply, and state-run Saudi Aramco has adjusted how those barrels move. Before the conflict, Aramco's core customers in Asia typically sent their own ships to Ras Tanura, the export terminal deep in the Gulf, and Aramco generally stayed out of arranging the voyage. After the war started, a number of shipowners have hesitated to transit Hormuz, forcing buyers to scramble for affordable tankers even when crude is on offer.
That caution helped spur a shuttle system through the strait in which the seller often carries the transit risk and then hands the oil to another vessel outside the waterway. Those ship-to-ship transfers have become a key way to keep supply flowing as competition for buyers picks up. Ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show September shipments were close to their 2025 average as transits via Hormuz climbed. The September figures cover the first 23 days of the month.
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How Aramco is adjusting and what's still undecided
People briefed on the talks say Aramco has been moving its three flagship grades - Arab Light, Arab Medium and Arab Heavy - via this shuttling arrangement. Recently, Aramco also allowed some buyers to complete ship-to-ship transfers off India's coast, offering a potentially safer option for customers unable to reach the Gulf of Oman due to security concerns while easing congestion around Arabian peninsula ports. The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq have all used the Hormuz shuttling system to move cargoes beyond the waterway via ship-to-ship transfers.
Aramco is weighing further changes, including offering a choice of pricing benchmarks and potentially taking cargoes all the way to Asian buyers. The company is also considering taking on the shipping role itself so it can send additional crude straight to customers. Beyond smoothing exports, those options could allow Aramco to retain a portion of the windfall created by sharply higher charter costs for traversing Hormuz.
Some Asian customers have talked with Aramco about linking long-term contractual purchases to Brent futures rather than the Dubai and Oman benchmarks, which would mark a new level of flexibility. Aramco and the Saudi Energy Ministry did not respond to requests for comment.
What this means for your portfolio
If these talks close by year-end, the fine print of long-term deals - where barrels are handed over, which benchmarks set the price, and who handles freight - could look different next year. For buyers, that changes both the logistics and the math of moving crude. For everyone else, the takeaway is simple: when routes shift but supply keeps flowing, price swings can still show up at the pump and in inflation data.
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