A new McKinsey study released Tuesday says around 11 million U.S. workers may need to find different jobs by 2035 as AI reshapes work. That is about 7% of today's workforce and well above the long run of roughly 215,000 people shifting occupations each year. McKinsey says that flow may roughly triple over the next decade, and it estimates that six of seven workers who do switch will need significant retraining and are likely to see their earnings drop.
The authors stress that people are not "interchangeable units." As they put it, "Job opportunities can be abundant and yet leave millions of workers without work if those positions require different skills, credentials, locations or pay structures than current jobs."
According to the study, three categories stand out as hotspots for job shifts among full-time staff: administrative and office support; sales and retail; plus transportation and logistics. Examples include customer-service representatives, cashiers, and warehouse staff. These jobs often pay on the lower end, and the report says lower-income workers face nearly an eightfold higher chance than higher earners of needing to switch occupations.
There is precedent for the pace of churn McKinsey is modeling. Report coauthor Tanguy Catlin, a senior partner with the McKinsey Global Institute, said the projected churn mirrors what happened during the pandemic. "We did it during Covid for two years," he said. "You would need to presume that we can sustain it for about 10 years."
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Plenty of moving parts make precise forecasts hard. The trajectory hinges on the speed of corporate AI adoption and the resulting shifts in labor demand across sectors, alongside broader forces like population aging. Given those unknowns, the authors put the figure between 6 million and 16 million workers who may need to switch occupations.
McKinsey defines automation adoption as its estimate of the share of total 2025 work hours that could be automated by 2035, and it measures lower labor demand by 2035 as a share of total 2025 work hours. Catlin noted a big variable the report did not model: in some roles, demand might fall faster than it rises elsewhere. "We don't know whether it's going to be painless," he said.
To smooth the path, the report sketches moves for federal, state and local governments, including providing richer, up-to-date labor-market information and financing retraining programs. As Catlin framed it, "The education system has been developed over time really to focus mostly on youth," and the central question is how to "continue to upskill the existing workforce, people who need to change occupations."
For your wallet, the takeaway is straightforward even if the transition is not: paychecks and career paths could shift faster in certain fields, especially lower-wage office support, retail and logistics. If your job is near those lanes, the next decade might bring more turbulence, but also new openings where specific skills are in short supply. Keeping tabs on training programs and local job trends could matter as much as tracking market moves.
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