Miners are leaning into copper as spending on data centers, electrification and bigger power grids accelerates. That cocktail of AI build-out and infrastructure needs is pulling capital toward copper projects and away from iron ore as a primary growth lever.
Iron ore, by contrast, is stuck in the slow lane. Prices have stayed subdued while China's property sector struggles to regain its footing after the pandemic slump. The latest new-home figures show prices remain weak even as authorities roll out support.
Copper's momentum is reshaping the leaderboard. BHP reports that, aided by record prices, copper crossed the 50% mark of its annual revenue for the first time. Fortescue Ltd., which is heavily weighted to iron ore, posted negative earnings growth.
Rio Tinto Group is also moving to bulk up in copper, seeking to benefit from tight supply, AI-driven demand and tariff-related trade frictions. BHP's bid to lift its copper mix included a run at Anglo American Plc that fell apart last year.
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The tilt shows up in investor messaging too. "The cut and thrust of it is that copper demand is growing while iron ore isn't, and the market is rewarding that," So says David Tuckwell, the chief investment officer for ETF Shares in Sydney. Looking at recent results from the biggest Australian miners, "the pivot to copper is well and truly under way."
There's a catch for anyone wanting pure-play copper names on the ASX: there aren't many, according to some analysts. Dylan Kelly, who leads research at Terra Capital Holdings, said, "If you want size, quality and scale, the ASX is not where you need to be when it comes to copper." For "large-scale producers with long lives, extremely low cost and a variety of choice, you've got to be in Canada," he added, noting the firm holds a minor stake in Perth-based FireFly Metals Ltd.
For context, market watchers are also tracking three recent copper stories: "Copper Clinches Second Weekly Gain as Traders Eye China Demand," "China's Copper Premium Soars as Buyers Scramble for Supply," and "BHP Halts Work at World's Largest Copper Mine After Accident." A related chart highlights that Australian mining shares have been moving more in line with copper, with performance shown as percentage gains since Dec. 30, 2022, using Bloomberg data.
If AI is the headline, copper is the wiring behind it. Growing copper exposure gives investors another way to participate in the AI push that has helped lift global stocks, while potential supply squeezes from proposed US tariffs and lower output in Chile add support for prices. Australia's miners are leaning into where they "see the next leg of growth," as Jessica Leung of Global X Management, a portfolio manager, put it: "There is a structural deficit in the copper industry as a whole."
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