Behind closed doors, Milei's aides informed the Trump administration that they don't have enough congressional support to ratify the bilateral trade agreement inked in February, people with knowledge of the discussions said. His government wants to revisit the terms after the US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump's global tariffs, noting the accord was sealed just weeks before that ruling.
In recent weeks, US policymakers traveled to Buenos Aires and delivered a firm line: no renegotiation. They also said they do not see a clear plan or timetable from Milei's team to move the pact through congress, even as Argentina's legislative calendar runs out in November.
Milei is prioritizing other high-stakes bills, and with 2027 in sight, pushing a big trade overhaul is seen as a risky lift. That has created friction over process despite the ideological overlap with Trump, who has called Milei "my favorite president."
A year ago, with Trump's help, the libertarian's party rebounded and increased its representation in congress by more than twofold in the midterm election. That political capital enabled Milei to sign the trade pact and pass a major labor reform, and at the time US officials treated ratification as essentially guaranteed. Since then, weak growth and a corruption scandal have pulled Milei's approval ratings close to the lows of his presidency. His reform push has stumbled in congress, renewing US concerns about how and when the agreement will be approved.
Even so, people in Washington and Buenos Aires say the delay is not souring the broader relationship. Should Trump and Milei cross paths around the United Nations General Assembly in New York this week, their conversation could help restart momentum. Back in February, both governments hailed the pact as a milestone for their warming ties, which have included more than a dozen Milei trips to the US for meetings with Trump, Elon Musk and others. And roughly a year ago, the US extended to Argentina a $20 billion currency swap line to help head off a market selloff before the country's midterms.
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Washington argues it already extended generous terms, including an additional 80,000 tons on Argentina's beef export quota plus more than 1,600 tariff exemptions, and now expects Buenos Aires to deliver, people said. In August, Deputy US Trade Representative Jeff Goettman met in Buenos Aires with Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno, Argentina's top trade official. As the USTR posted on X: "Ambassador Goettman also underscored the importance of ratification of the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade and Investment (ARTI), which was concluded earlier this year, in order to fulfill our shared economic vision."
Argentine officials counter that the Supreme Court's tariff ruling changed the legal landscape and say they cannot ratify a deal tied to rules that no longer stand. Even so, Milei's government has begun implementing parts of the pact. In March, the patent office, INPI, scrapped 2012 guidelines that limited pharmaceutical patentability, and the country has also loosened some import restrictions. Domestic pharmaceutical companies are lobbying hard against further IP provisions, and legislation related to the Patent Cooperation Treaty passed the lower house with changes and is awaiting a senate vote.
The politics are showing up in prices. On Tuesday, Argentina's dollar debt lagged other emerging markets as the benchmark 2035 notes fell by nearly half a cent to 73.7 cents on the dollar and the yield rose 9 basis points to 10.54%. At a recent US embassy event on bilateral trade with Quirno, multiple attendees said they were surprised the pact did not come up. Argentina's foreign ministry and the Office of the US Trade Representative did not respond to requests for comment.
The US wants Argentina to implement what was negotiated, not reopen it. A quick huddle between Trump and Milei in New York could nudge things forward, but the clock runs out in November. For everyday investors, the tell is whether ratification starts to move and whether Argentina keeps chipping away at regulatory commitments. Those are the breadcrumbs for how Argentine assets might trade from here.
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