What moved prices this week
Brent pushed to roughly $108 on Thursday and WTI topped $104 before momentum cooled. The retreat followed announcements from Iranian state outlets that Tehran plans to meet with Gulf nations in Oman to talk about the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting a diplomatic opening after the week's sharp flare-up.
An exchange readout for ICE Brent Crude (Nov′26) showed a delayed last trade of 104.48, down 3.15 or 2.93%, at 3:54 PM BST. Friday's pullback broke a five day climb for Brent and ended WTI's eight day winning streak.
How traders are framing the risk
Markets are bracing for a drawn out Iran war, responding to rising tensions in the Middle East and a Wall Street Journal article noted that senior White House advisers weighed with President Donald Trump whether the conflict might stretch past his current term. Trump said he expects the hostilities to conclude after the U.S. midterm elections, with oil and gas prices falling following the November ballot.
"Once again, it is geopolitical fears driving everything," Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid wrote Friday morning. He pointed to intensifying concerns over Red Sea shipping and potential spillovers for Saudi exports after Houthi rebels seized Yemen's port city of Mokha near the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait, adding that Saudi Arabia's oil output has dropped to its lowest level since 1990.
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What to watch next
Tamas Varga of PVM Oil Associates told CNBC that the main issue is determining if the present supply shortfall is structural or temporary. He said "further spikes cannot be ruled out and re-visiting the April peak of $126 remains a possibility as global and regional oil inventories keep drawing down," while warning that "the higher oil prices climb, the more demand will be obliterated." Varga added that today's market is more elastic than during the first Gulf War in 1990, with renewable energy "more than capable" of replacing "certain parts of the barrel," especially in electricity generation.
"It appears only a question of time that the gap between global oil supply and demand will narrow, either by supply increasing in case of a truce or demand decreases, due to the widespread use of alternative energy sources," he said, adding that while prices could continue to firm, he would not expect that momentum to persist past 2026.
What this means for your money
Brent futures were tracking toward a 9% weekly rise and poised to finish the week above $100 for the first time since mid May, with WTI up 8.9% for the week. The near term focus is straightforward - watch whether prices stick near triple digits and if Oman talks cool the temperature, which could influence how long this rally holds.
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