The summer slump did not last long. After a stretch in late June and July when investors dumped the AI stocks that had led the rally, the S&P 500 turned around and climbed more than 5% in just four sessions.
Renewed buying in AI names powered the turn.
The big round number suddenly feels a lot closer. The index is about 3.6% away from 8,000.
That is not a huge gap by stock market standards, and the traders on Kalshi have noticed.
Kalshi is a prediction market, which means users bet real money on whether a certain thing will happen. Its contracts work like yes-or-no questions about whether the index will trade above a certain level in 2026, and Google Finance data decides the answer.
These are real-money wagers, not opinions from a survey. Right now, Kalshi speculators give roughly 66% odds, or 2-in-3, that the index crosses 8,000 in 2026.
The bets are for 2026, not next week, which is worth remembering when you read the odds.
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The four-day surge prompted traders to update those expectations in a hurry. Reduced U.S.-Iran tensions, solid corporate earnings, and the near-collapse of the Situational Awareness fund run by Leopold Aschenbrenner all played a part.
It is also worth knowing that CNBC and Kalshi are commercial partners. CNBC refers customers to Kalshi and holds a minority stake in the company.
Before this rally, the market had a worrying stretch. The S&P 500 recovered in April and May after bottoming during the U.S.-Iran war, then mostly stalled as the summer wore on.
Buying in other parts of the market masked some of that stress. Analysts now view the summer slowdown as a healthy reset, not the end of the AI rally.
The general expectation is that the bull market will regain momentum from here. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth, wrote in a Tuesday note: "Our investment thesis remains intact."
"Earnings remain our north star. Estimates continue to trend higher, economic growth remains resilient, and market participation has improved."
"Those are not conditions typically associated with the end of a bull market," Lerner wrote.
A number like 2-in-3 is easier to read if you remember what a prediction market actually is. It is a live price, not a professional forecast.
The odds can move with the next headline, and they represent what traders are willing to risk right now, not what is guaranteed. They are still a useful sign of where the crowd thinks the market goes from here.
Put the last few months together and you get a zigzag, not a straight line: recovery in April and May, a stall in late June and July, then this sharp push higher.
The S&P 500 is the benchmark behind most broad stock funds, so these levels are not just trivia. If the index climbs toward 8,000 and beyond, retirement accounts and index fund portfolios tend to follow along.
The gap is real, though.
In human terms, 2-in-3 is a solid favorite, not a sure thing. The market is pricing in a very good 2026, and the next few months will show whether that confidence is earned.
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