Asian stocks set for early gains as investors balance US rally with Nvidia probe

Futures point to a brighter open

Asian equities looked poised to firm up Monday as traders stacked a US bounce against fresh tech jitters. Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures edged higher, reversing earlier dips after both benchmarks advanced Friday, while contracts tied to South Korea and Taiwan pointed up.

Chips helped. A US chip-stock barometer climbed 4.2%, helping offset last week's 5.5% slide in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. The selloff drove Japanese and Taiwanese equities into formal bear territory and pulled a global stock gauge to a six-month trough.

Nvidia probe takes the spotlight

The shine on tech was dulled by new questions around Nvidia. An instrument on the Hyperliquid blockchain tied to Nvidia's share price declined once the board launched a probe into whether Jensen Huang had been singled out by a foreign spy scheme.

Nick Twidale of AT Global Markets, where he serves as chief market analyst, said, "The Nvidia honey trap will weigh on Asian markets to kick off the week." "It just creates huge uncertainty over what happens over Nvidia which is one of, if not the biggest, AI company out there."

Energy, FX and crypto moves

Oil eased. Brent slipped 0.8% to around 97.50 dollars a barrel after President Donald Trump said it is "highly unlikely" he will authorize additional strikes against Iran if talks advance on its nuclear program and on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, according to CNN.

The dollar showed a mixed performance in early Monday trading. The greenback added 0.4% last week - its largest weekly increase in a month - as the stock-market slump boosted safe-haven demand and robust jobs figures reignited bets that the Federal Reserve will raise rates again. The kiwi edged higher after a national election over the weekend, and Bitcoin traded above 75,000 dollars early Monday.

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What to watch next

China's October inflation data lands Monday, with consumer and producer prices giving a fresh read on the world's number two economy. Bloomberg Economics said inflation may have picked up on higher energy costs.

Investors are also digesting US midterm results and what they might mean for fiscal policy, regulation and growth. Next up is Tuesday's US inflation report, with traders assigning an almost 80% chance of a year end hike. Barclays, in a note led by Themistoklis Fiotakis, said history shows plenty of aggressive risk taking and the jury is still out on AI. The team added, "That said, solid growth momentum and the likely extension of the CAPEX cycle without massive downward revisions make us inclined to buy any dip in the dollar."

The bottom line: sentiment is trying to turn, but tech headlines, oil diplomacy and inflation data will steer the next move for risk and the dollar, and by extension your portfolio.

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