Negotiations for next year's term contracts have hit a snag over how to treat volumes customers could not lift from existing deals after a Middle East war curbed exports, according to traders involved. With contracted cargoes disrupted, buyers turned to spot purchases of Persian Gulf crude to fill the gap.
To satisfy that demand, Aramco ramped up selling spot barrels into Asia starting in early September, aided by better transit conditions via the Strait of Hormuz while attacks on ships were still occurring. The traders asked not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak to media.
Ship tracking compiled by Bloomberg shows September flows climbed toward their 2025 average as Hormuz transits picked up, based on data through Sept. 23. The world's largest crude exporter now wants to shift more volumes back under term deals for next year.
There is a timing pinch. Term contracts for the coming year usually wrap by late October. Asian refiners tend to buy January-loading Middle Eastern oil in November on the spot market, so they need clarity on term volumes before locking those in.
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The central disagreement is whether recent prompt spot purchases should count toward this year's contractual obligations. Some processors say they should; traders say Aramco is pushing back and telling buyers to take extra term barrels next year to make up the shortfall.
The traders said that if those spot purchases do not count, a large number of Asian buyers would fail to fulfill their 2026 contracts with Aramco. According to the traders, at least one processor was pressed to make up this year's deficit by agreeing to take additional crude in 2027 and is pushing back. The dispute is also slowing spot buying of Saudi crude and of oil from other Middle Eastern suppliers. Aramco declined to comment.
Talks with other Persian Gulf producers are underway too. Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. is allowing some Asian refiners to credit spot crude against this year's annual import obligations, though no decision has been made on whether that policy will extend into 2027. "As a resilient and reliable energy provider, Adnoc remains committed to supporting our customers across Asia and providing flexibility as we meet their requirements," the company said.
Buying patterns from the Middle East will stay uncertain until security conditions stabilize. Aramco has also floated changes to pricing benchmarks and delivery terms in supply contracts, including a potential option where it handles shipping the crude directly to some Asian customers.
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