Central Banks See Bigger Role for Gold, Smaller Slice for the Dollar

Gold's share is expected to climb

Central banks are leaning toward gold. In the latest survey, 84% said that in five years gold will account for a larger share of overall reserves, compared with 76% in the prior year. Replies from both richer nations and EMDE (a category covering emerging-market and developing economies) largely matched, with the majority projecting a modest rise over that period.

One question asked what portion of total reserves - foreign exchange plus gold - could be in gold five years ahead. The chart credits YouGov and the World Gold Council and includes a disclaimer. Sample sizes for that question were:

• 2026: 73 central banks in total, comprising 17 from advanced economies plus 56 EMDE
• 2025: 73 total, with 15 from advanced economies plus 58 EMDE
• 2024: 68 total, including 23 from advanced economies plus 45 EMDE
• 2023: 57 total, with 13 from advanced economies plus 44 EMDE
• 2022: 56 total, including 13 from advanced economies plus 43 EMDE

Note 1 provides detail on the response categories.

Dollar share seen slipping further

The dollar remains the top reserve currency, but its grip has eased. IMF data from the Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves indicates the US dollar's share has been slowly declining, and 74% of respondents expect its share to be smaller in five years. Both advanced-economy and EMDE participants echoed that expectation.

A separate question gauged what portion of total reserves - again, foreign exchange plus gold - might be held in US dollars five years out. The chart cites YouGov and the World Gold Council, with a disclaimer. Sample sizes were:

• 2026: 73 total, with 17 from advanced economies plus 56 EMDE
• 2025: 71 total, including 14 from advanced economies plus 57 EMDE
• 2024: 68 total, with 23 from advanced economies plus 45 EMDE
• 2023: 57 total, including 13 from advanced economies plus 44 EMDE
• 2022: 56 total, with 13 from advanced economies plus 43 EMDE

Note 2 explains the answer options.

Near term: more buying, and record expectations to add

Consensus is strong: 89% expect global official gold reserves to increase over the next year, a sentiment shared across both advanced economies as well as EMDE. Also notable, 11% think gold's share of total reserves will stay the same, up from 5% last year.

The question on global gold reserves over the next 12 months (sourced to YouGov and the World Gold Council, with a disclaimer) had these sample sizes:

• 2026: 74 total, with 17 from advanced economies plus 57 EMDE
• 2025: 73 total, including 15 from advanced economies plus 58 EMDE
• 2024: 69 total, with 24 from advanced economies plus 45 EMDE

From 2023 onward, "Don't know" was removed as an option.

As reserve preferences shift, steady strategies help protect and grow your savings. Join Briefs Finance CEO Jaspreet Singh on September 29th for a FREE live investor workshop, How to Profit From A Dollar That's Losing its Value, where he shows how we're spotting investment opportunities as the dollar falls. Save your spot.

On their own balance sheets, 45% of central banks expect their gold reserves to rise over the coming year, roughly matching last year's 43%. Most anticipate no change. Even so, this marks a new record for those expecting to add, and EMDE institutions still outpace their peers in advanced economies. Among EMDE respondents roughly half expect to increase their gold, while the other half expect no change.

The institution-level question (with YouGov and World Gold Council noted as sources and a disclaimer) had these sample sizes:

• 2026: 74 total, with 17 from advanced economies plus 57 EMDE
• 2025: 72 total, including 14 from advanced economies plus 58 EMDE
• 2024: 69 total, with 24 from advanced economies plus 45 EMDE

"Don't know" has not been an option since 2023.

What this could mean for your money

Survey respondents expect gold to represent a larger portion of official reserves in five years and the US dollar a smaller share, and they foresee continued increases in global official gold holdings over the next 12 months.

Watching long term trends, investors benefit from calm planning and wise choices. Our CEO Jaspreet Singh is hosting a FREE live investor workshop, How to Profit From A Dollar That's Losing its Value, on September 29th. Sign up free to join him live.