What companies are doing now
Conagra Brands told retailers it will push through increases in late September. In a memo to customers, Chief Customer Officer Derek De La Mater said sustained jumps in packaging and ingredient costs are significant and that continuing to absorb them is not sustainable, so price moves are needed in part to protect profit margins.
Campbell's intends to lift list prices 4% to 5% on about 60% of its lineup, primarily meals and snacks. Speaking at the Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference, Chief Financial Officer Todd Cunfer called price increases "the last lever we have," adding that cost cutting could not fully offset inflation: "Unfortunately, that was not enough given the extreme amount of inflation that we are seeing right now."
McCormick said it expects higher pricing to support its performance in the second half of 2026. Clorox said it is increasing what it charges for food items, Glad trash bags and select cleaning products, while Chief Executive Officer Linda Rendle stressed the approach will be "very targeted" because "we feel right now the consumer is stretched."
General Mills recently lowered many base prices to stay competitive, which helped sales. "We don't think that we need to do more there across the board," Chief Operating Officer Dana McNabb said at the same conference, while emphasizing the company will keep evaluating if raising prices makes sense.
Why costs are climbing
Food makers' efforts to hold the line are faltering after long-running increases in energy and fertilizer costs and higher expenses tied to import tariffs. El Niño is also on track to be the most powerful in 76 years, which could push prices higher if severe weather damages crops or disrupts trade.
California Polytechnic State University's Ricky Volpe, who teaches agricultural economics, said producers' cost structures offer almost no bright spots. He noted that competition, political scrutiny and consumer frustration have kept a lid on prices for a time, but that only goes so far. "A lot of major retailers and manufacturers and wholesalers have been eating it a little bit, seeing their margins decrease a little bit and trying to keep prices low - but that can't last forever," he said.
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On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics said the consumer price index increased 0.4% in August. US diesel prices crossed the $6 a gallon mark for the first time ever, a move likely to push up transportation and farm expenses. That same day, Kroger trimmed its sales outlook, pointing out that unit volumes have decelerated since the start of the year and warning that inflation pressures are likely to intensify, further squeezing shoppers.
How stores and shoppers are adapting
Sticker shock will not hit all markets simultaneously. In the end, retailers choose what share of higher costs to eat and when to change shelf prices, balancing competition and demand. Even so, the trend is adding to political pressure on President Donald Trump, who two years ago ran on a promise to lower grocery costs following a post-pandemic spike.
Grocery prices have risen since Trump took office and hit a record high in June, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Prices have been steadier more recently but remain elevated. Reductions in government food assistance are leaving some low-income families under greater strain.
Retailers including Walmart, Kroger and Costco are investing to keep key items affordable and working with suppliers, but several grocers have said they expect inflation to pick up as the year goes on. Consumers are reacting by opting for store brands, choosing smaller pack sizes, and hopping between stores to find lower prices. Consumer spending overall has held up, though retailers say lower-income customers are more budget conscious and hunting for deals.
Circana's chief adviser for consumer goods and foodservice insights, Sally Lyons Wyatt, said the year over year increase is not dramatic, but the compounding effect of several years of hikes is the real problem. Packaged foods are rising slightly faster than overall food and beverage this year, and she expects more increases tied to transportation, packaging and ingredients. She added that prices will also face upward pressure from weather and energy costs related to the US war with Iran. After five years of stacked inflation, "there isn't a lot more wiggle room."
What it means for your wallet
Prices will not jump overnight, but the direction for many categories is up. Expect a staggered rollout as retailers decide how much to absorb and when to pass through increases. The first signs you will notice are fewer deals on your go tos and more variation across stores on the same items.
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