The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow strip of water between Iran and Oman that carries about a fifth of the world's energy supplies. When that route feels uncertain, oil prices move.
Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Sunday that Tehran is not in direct negotiations with Washington. "Messages are being exchanged through intermediaries," according to news agency Mehr.
He also made clear that an agreement with Oman alone would not do the job. "Talks with Oman do not mean the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened," he said.
Oman matters because it sits on the opposite side of the waterway from Iran. The two countries have been discussing a navigation deal for a transit route, with incoming ships using Iranian waters and outgoing ships using Omani waters, according to reports.
Araghchi said Washington would still have to meet conditions passed along through intermediaries. The Supreme National Security Council's list includes lifting the naval blockade and sanctions, removing U.S. troops, paying war reparations, and releasing frozen Iranian assets.
It also wants Washington to stop attacking Iran's regional allies and stop threatening Iran. The White House did not comment on those demands, and CNBC could not independently verify them.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Tuesday that a deal to ensure free movement through Hormuz could be reached as soon as Wednesday. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and President Donald Trump have also signaled that a deal is close.
Trump told Axios the administration is "low keying it" and watching Iran's economy struggle with high inflation and little money. "It will work out. It always works out. It's like a chess game," he said.
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Friday, oil prices climbed as traders waited on a deal. Brent crude, the global benchmark, gained more than 1% to settle at $83.55 a barrel.
West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, rose about 1% to $78.18.
Shipping data firm Kpler put Hormuz traffic down 33% from Thursday, with most of the ships that did move taking the Iranian side of the waterway.
There is also a deadline looming. The interim pact signed June 17 set up a 60-day negotiation period that ends in just over a week, and it was supposed to produce a final deal covering sanctions, compensation, and frozen Iranian assets.
Instead, a draft proposal surfaced in Iranian official media, via Fars, calling for a total ban on U.S. and Israeli vessels in the strait. Iran's parliament is reviewing it, which is not the kind of headway that typically calms markets.
Sunday brought a different kind of headline.
The Yemeni group asserted on X that the attack was retaliation for Saudi drone incursions into Yemeni airspace. CNBC could not independently verify the claim.
The Houthis have said they hit the same facility repeatedly since the war began. The Saudi Energy Ministry said only that authorities are "completing the necessary procedures to deal with the incident."
Oil prices do not stay inside the energy market. They leak into gasoline, shipping costs, and the price of nearly everything delivered by truck.
So this week's numbers matter outside the trading screen. A more than 7% weekly drop is real relief at the pump, and one fresh headline can give some of it back just as fast.
For your portfolio, the practical takeaway is simple: energy prices are likely to keep swinging on news until one of those storylines gives. Because oil touches everything from gasoline to groceries, those swings land on your monthly spending.
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