Lilly Beats Quarterly Estimates and Lifts Guidance on Mounjaro, Zepbound Sales

Lilly Tops Estimates Across the Board

Eli Lilly is having the kind of year most drugmakers can only dream about.

Net income rose to $7.10 billion.

That works out to $7.94 a share.

A year earlier, Lilly earned $5.66 billion.

That equaled $6.29 a share.

"It's a really strong start to the year for Lilly," Chief Executive Dave Ricks said. "It's hard to think of a time that we've been in a better position than this."

On Aug 5, Lilly shares rose 4% in morning trading after the report.

Mounjaro and Zepbound Drive the Quarter

The GLP-1 class of drugs powered the quarter. They treat diabetes and help with weight loss.

Mounjaro, the diabetes treatment, generated $9.94 billion in worldwide revenue.

That was up 91% from a year earlier.

The drug also beat the $8.99 billion analysts expected.

U.S. sales came to $4.8 billion.

That was above the $4.44 billion forecast.

Sales outside the U.S. jumped 172%.

Ricks said Mounjaro demand in Brazil, China and India is strong and mostly paid for out of pocket. He called that demand "very strong and durable."

Zepbound, Lilly's obesity drug, brought in $4.93 billion.

That was 46% higher than last year.

StreetAccount had expected $4.69 billion in U.S. Zepbound revenue.

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Ricks said demand stayed strong, though the price Lilly actually collected fell. More patients paid cash and used discounts.

The company's U.S. revenue rose 33%.

That put the total at $14.4 billion.

U.S. volume was up 37%.

International revenue jumped 36%.

It reached $8.6 billion.

The amount of medicine sold outside the U.S. rose 113%.

The actual price Lilly collected there fell 36%.

Most of that price drop happened because China added Mounjaro to its state health insurance program for Type 2 diabetes.

Lilly accounted for 60.9% of the American market for obesity and diabetes medications.

Novo Nordisk, its biggest rival, held 38.8%.

Foundayo, the oral obesity pill approved in the U.S. in April, brought in $98 million.

That was just short of the $103 million FactSet expected.

Ricks said consumer awareness and prescriptions for Foundayo each doubled in a month.

About one-quarter of people newly starting an oral medication choose it.

He described the oral GLP-1 market as "expansionary," not one that steals sales from Zepbound. Foundayo competes with an oral GLP-1 from Novo Nordisk that launched a few months earlier.

"We're really pleased with the start; it's accelerating as we speak," Ricks said.

What the Raised Forecast Means for Investors

After a quarter like that, Lilly raised its expectations.

That is up from its old forecast of $82 billion to $85 billion.

Profit guidance is a little more complicated.

That compares with $35.50 to $37 before.

At the midpoint, underlying profit guidance rose by $2.78 per share.

Deal-related charges offset that gain by $3.03 per share, which is why the headline range shifted.

Lilly has also been busy with deals, announcing plans to buy three vaccine makers. It made that announcement in May.

In July, it agreed to acquire a psychedelics drugmaker.

Medicare started covering obesity drugs in early July, giving eligible seniors access to branded GLP-1s for a $50 monthly copay. Ricks called that rollout "off to a strong start" and said the Trump administration's action should significantly cut Medicare spending while helping seniors live longer.

Ricks also expects the GLP-1 market to keep expanding, from roughly 20 million patients worldwide at the end of 2025 to about 30 million by the end of 2026.

For your portfolio, the number to watch is the patient count.

Mounjaro and Zepbound are already huge sales drivers, and Foundayo gives the company another way to grow.

If that keeps up, Lilly's latest forecast might not be the last one it raises.

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