The program's trust fund is projected to be exhausted in the fourth quarter of 2032. In the absence of new laws, the projected depletion could lead to a 22% reduction in payments to eligible retirees, along with their spouses, children, and the survivors of deceased workers. The basic toolkit for lawmakers remains familiar - raise more revenue, reduce benefits, or combine both.
Between Aug. 20 and Aug. 27, the nonpartisan Peter G. Peterson Foundation ran an online survey of 2,500 registered voters across Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, with a 4.4% margin of error. Before hearing about the projected 2032 reductions, 49% supported pursuing Social Security reforms. After interviewers explained the potential cuts, support climbed to 91%.
That 91% included 92% of Republicans and 90% of Democrats. Support spanned generations too - 94% among people 65 and older, 92% for those 45 to 64, and 87% for ages 18 to 44.
Voters weighed in on specific fixes. The biggest bloc, 72%, supported a 1% increase to the payroll tax ceiling applied to all income above $184,500. At present, both employees and employers contribute 6.2% toward Social Security taxes, applied only to the first $184,500 of pay; that threshold is updated each year based on average wage growth.
About two thirds, 66%, favored capping benefits so a retired couple would not receive more than $100,000 per year. Another 65% favored trimming benefits for the highest-earning 20%, and 65% endorsed phased benefit changes combined with tax hikes. Only 29% supported government borrowing to avoid automatic cuts.
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"Awareness with the public is still relatively low, although it's growing," said Brett Loper, the foundation's executive vice president of policy. "If we can raise the awareness level amongst the population, they're in turn going to hopefully raise it with the candidates who are running for office." The foundation has not endorsed specific fixes, though it has supported setting up a commission to tackle solvency.
Another poll of 2,243 Americans, fielded in October and November 2024 by the National Academy of Social Insurance, AARP, the National Institute on Retirement Security and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce with Greenwald Research, found the top choice was to eliminate the payroll tax cap on earnings above $400,000 while not boosting benefits in exchange. That survey, which had a plus-or-minus 2.1 percentage point margin of error, also found broad backing for gradually increasing the payroll tax rate for workers and employers to 7.2% from 6.2%.
Respondents in that 2024 survey also favored certain benefit enhancements, including revising the cost of living formula to better reflect inflation, creating a caregiver credit, and offering a bridge benefit for older workers from physically demanding occupations.
The Peterson Foundation favors a commission model, like the Bipartisan Social Security Commission Act, that would set up a 13-member group made up of legislators and external specialists to map out ways to restore long-term solvency. The last major reforms, signed by President Ronald Reagan in 1983, followed a commission's recommendations. Today, groups including AARP say they would rather see a transparent legislative process with opportunities for public input. As for timing, Loper said, "Let's hopefully solve this in 2027 or 2028 [under President Donald Trump], or 2029 with a new president, as opposed to waiting until the last minute in 2032 when the options become less and less appealing."
What to watch: voters in key states appear to reward candidates who try to fix the problem rather than promise not to touch it. The mix of potential changes - from higher payroll taxes on more income, to benefit caps for high earners, to targeted boosts like caregiver credits - could shape both your take home pay and your eventual check. Where your candidates land now could decide what your retirement looks like after 2032.
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