Switzerland's State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, or SECO, upgraded its near-term outlook after a stronger than expected second quarter. It said the quarter's outperformance leaned heavily on the swingy pharmaceuticals industry, which "is likely to overstate underlying economic momentum." SECO also said the economy has held up well this year despite pricier oil and strains in Switzerland's trade ties with the US.
The agency now sees GDP - stripped of the impact from major sporting events - climbing 1.7% in 2026, compared with 0.9% in June. For next year, it kept the forecast at 1.6%. It left inflation unchanged at 0.6% for both this year and next.
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SECO's brighter view lines up with the OECD, which boosted its own numbers earlier this week. On Thursday, SECO pointed to two pressure points for the outlook: elevated oil prices and frictions with Washington over trade.
SECO's 0.6% inflation track is consistent with the Swiss National Bank's June projections and sits comfortably inside the SNB's 0-2% target range. Officials may also adjust how they describe potential franc interventions, given the currency's recent slide against the euro. In July, people with knowledge of internal deliberations at the central bank told Bloomberg that the key rate is expected to stay unchanged through the end of 2027.
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