ExxonMobil Holdings Corp. says coal's staying power is locking in a hotter planet and pushing emissions beyond mid-century climate goals. In its latest Energy Outlook, the company pegs 2050 carbon dioxide output at 30 billion metric tons, close to three times what would align with a 2C (3.6F) cap on warming over pre-industrial levels.
That projection is about 10% higher than last year's, tied to slower uptake of mitigation efforts like carbon capture and coal's continued use in power generation.
ExxonMobil trimmed its expectations for key decarbonization tools. It now sees a role for carbon capture and storage and for low-carbon hydrogen that is about one-third smaller than in last year's report. "That is essentially slowed down versus what we had in the last outlook because of affordability and the lack of willingness to pay," said Prasanna Joshi, ExxonMobil's Economic and Energy Director.
Joshi said the world is "nowhere close" to the 2C target set by the UN's climate panel and, looking at IPCC scenarios, today's trajectory would lift temperatures by 2.5C to 3C by 2050.
For at least five straight UN COP meetings, negotiators have focused on phasing out coal in favor of cleaner options such as natural gas, wind and solar power, as well as nuclear energy. Yet elevated liquefied natural gas costs, combined with the stop-and-start output typical of certain renewable sources, have sustained coal's prominence in many markets, particularly in Asia. "We are seeing clear signs that coal is sticking longer from an energy security and other perspectives, specifically in parts of Asia-Pacific, China, and others," Joshi said.
In the US, coal has also had political support. US Department of Energy Undersecretary Kyle Haustveit said the Trump administration "ended the war on beautiful clean coal." He added, "It is still by far and away the largest fuel source for electricity and that's great."
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ExxonMobil's outlook continues to project robust consumption of oil and natural gas over many years, even while nations work to reduce emissions. The company says its projections rely on scientific and economic analysis that factors in realistic policy and consumer shifts. It also expects global electricity use to jump 65% by 2050, driven largely by growth in developing economies.
In the US, it sees data centers doubling their share of power consumption within five years, but hitting barriers in chips, grid capacity, and permitting. "We do see real constraints on chips, power infrastructure, and essentially the rate and pace of permitting of these projects," Joshi said.
For everyday investors, this paints a picture of where energy demand may actually head: coal lasting longer than hoped in some regions, oil and gas sticking around, and electricity needs surging with computing.
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