Strait of Hormuz Disruption Could Stall China's Oil Rebound

July Bought Oil, but Recovery Has Limits

China's crude imports in July hit their highest level in three months. The rebound follows a U.S.-Iran memorandum in mid-June that briefly allowed commercial shipping back through the Strait of Hormuz.

The rebound is real, but it is from a very low base. Customs data compiled by Wind Information shows July imports were 24% lower than a year earlier, a smaller decline than June's 41% year-over-year drop.

June was particularly rough. Imports came in at about 29.3 million tons, the lowest monthly level since October 2016, because the Gulf conflict cut off most Middle Eastern supply.

Capital Economics' Julian Evans-Pritchard said the rebound may already be fading. It "was supported by the short-lived reopening of the Strait of Hormuz at the end of Q2," he said, and "may even go into reverse somewhat."

August volumes are likely to level off or turn down, he said, as higher oil prices encourage refiners to lean on inventories. Domestic demand is also weak, which takes away some of the pressure to buy expensive barrels.

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for Gulf crude; when it is shut, buyers such as China lose access to a large share of their normal imports. That is why the June reopening mattered, and why the July collapse pushed Beijing back into wait-and-see mode.

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Has Dropped to a Trickle

The waterway at the center of all this is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow route between Iran and Oman. Before the war, about 130 to 140 ships crossed it daily.

Markets move every day, and most of it never reaches you in time. Get the free Market Briefs daily newsletter and stay ahead of it.

The reopening did not hold. Traffic has since fallen to a trickle while energy prices have risen.

Refiners have reacted by drawing down stockpiles and cutting crude processing instead of paying war-driven premiums. Cutting processing is a sign that they don't see enough demand to justify buying at higher prices.

Beijing can afford to wait because China has a large strategic inventory to fall back on. That reserve gives the country breathing room in the middle of a supply shock.

There are still signs of possible progress. Talks between Tehran and Muscat had nearly produced a framework under which vessels would enter through Iranian waters and leave via a route closer to Oman, with U.S. and Israeli ships among those facing restrictions.

A Huge Stockpile Gives Beijing Room to Wait

China is not desperate to buy right now. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated the country's strategic crude oil inventories at nearly 1.4 billion barrels in December 2025.

That is a big cushion, and it helps explain why Beijing feels little urgency to resume imports. Tianchen Xu of the Economist Intelligence Unit said China is "an opportunistic buyer of oil" that is not "in a hurry" and would only buy "en masse" after a de-escalation lasting several weeks pulled oil prices down.

What It Means for Your Portfolio

For your portfolio, this is an oil story more than a China story. If the Strait of Hormuz stays choked, supply stays tight and prices have a reason to stay high.

If the standoff drags on, high energy prices become part of the background for the whole economy. If it ends, the same prices can fade fast.

That dynamic can lift energy company earnings while pushing up costs for airlines, trucking, and any business with a big fuel bill. If a real de-escalation takes hold, the math changes, and oil prices would likely drop as China steps back into the market as a buyer.

Until then, Beijing can lean on its stockpile and wait. For most people, the standoff shows up at the pump and in the price of energy stocks.

The money story behind the headlines is usually the part that matters. Join Market Briefs free and get it every morning.