Trump has a habit of saying an Iran deal is almost done. He said it again this week.
His latest promise is a signed deal in two or three days, with the Strait of Hormuz reopening right away. But the war just passed 100 days, and oil traders met the promise with selling that pushed prices lower.
This isn't the first "almost there" moment, since Trump first said the fighting would last four to six weeks. On Sunday, it crossed 100 days instead.
He still says the two sides are close. The goal, he says, is a "very, very good deal" that blocks Iran from building nuclear weapons.
Sky News Arabia backed that up, reporting that a draft was sent to the U.S. and is "preliminarily acceptable" to the White House. A White House official struck the same note.
The official said talks "are going very well" and that Trump "is not going to be rushed into making a bad deal."
That same official said Iran is "desperate" to deal because of a U.S. blockade. Trump, for his part, posted that talks were "proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way."
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Normally a shaky ceasefire and fresh strikes push oil higher, yet this time prices fell. Brent crude is the global price benchmark, and it slipped 1.3% to about $93 a barrel in morning trading as U.S. crude fell even harder.
A lower oil price is a quiet vote of doubt. It says traders don't expect the war to choke off supply just yet.
Think of a contractor who's said "done next week" for three months straight, and you'll see where oil traders sit. They've heard "days away" before, so until ink hits paper, they treat the headlines as noise.
The ceasefire itself is wobbling. Iran and Israel traded strikes over the weekend, the first since the truce took hold in mid-April.
Iran fired missiles toward northern Israel, blaming it for strikes on Lebanon. One of those strikes hit Beirut's southern suburbs on Sunday.
Israel said it answered with a "large-scale strike on strategic defense systems." Iran's military then halted, though Tehran warned it would restart if the strikes on Lebanon keep up.
With words flying on all sides, investors who follow smart money tend to watch the oil tape over the talk. Many have leaned into defense stocks as the fighting drags on.
Oil is the cleaner signal here. Right now it's pointing toward calm.
Trump tied the next move to one rule. He posted that the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports won't lift "until a 'Final Deal' is reached."
So the Strait stays tense, the ships stay put, and the clock keeps running. A deal could come in days.
It's been "days" for over three months.
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