Nigerian oil is suddenly one of the hottest barrels on the market.
Bonny Light is trading near $110 a barrel, after spiking as high as $134 earlier this month.
That is still well above where it sat in late February.
Why? Buyers want crude that does not cross the Strait of Hormuz.
Nigeria's Oil Revenue Surge
The state oil company NNPC just lifted prices on all 37 Nigerian crude grades.
Bonny Light went up $6.13 a barrel for May cargoes. Forcados rose another $7.01.
The Federal Government has booked an estimated N5.13 trillion windfall in two months. That is well above what the 2026 budget assumed.
Most of the gains came in April. Bonny Light averaged $127 a barrel that month, with output near 1.7 million barrels a day.
The 2026 budget was built on $64.85 a barrel. Prices are now more than twice that.
In March, the windfall was N1.19 trillion. April brought in N3.94 trillion as prices climbed even higher.
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Buyers Pivot Away From Middle East Supply
The war began February 28. Crude prices were below $70 a barrel at the time.
Prices then climbed past $120 at the peak. The Strait of Hormuz is now effectively closed.
A U.S. naval blockade sits at the entrance. Iran has seized several commercial vessels near the strait, including the Ocean Koi tanker on May 8.
The International Energy Agency says the world oil market will stay "severely undersupplied" until October.
Refiners want supply that does not need to cross the strait. Nigerian crude does not.
Bonny Light is up more than 55% since the war began, with prices spiking as high as $134 earlier this month. Brent traded near $108 on Friday after a 5% climb on the week.
The Dangote refinery is also lifting Nigeria. The 650,000 barrel-a-day plant has shipped fuel this year to Togo, Niger, Angola, Cameroon, Tanzania, Ghana, and Ivory Coast.
It is the first time Nigeria has been a net exporter of refined fuels.
The plant moved more than 456,000 tonnes in 12 cargoes by the end of March. The pace has kept rising since.
What's Next For The Trade
The IEA says the world will run short of oil through at least October.
Even if the war ends next month, the stock build will take time.
That keeps Nigerian crude in demand at high prices.
But local refining costs are still tied to Brent. So fuel inside Nigeria stays expensive even as oil companies cash in.
Worth Noting
The windfall is one-sided.
Refined fuel inside Nigeria now sells for over N1,250 a liter at most stations. That is up from about N900 before the war.
The Dangote refinery raised its own price to N1,275 a liter, up from N1,200.
The country's oil firms are richer. Its drivers are paying the bill at the pump.
That's the trade.
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