The retail industry's trade group is calling for a quicker pickup in holiday spending than a year ago, with high-income households doing much of the heavy lifting. The NRF forecasts that purchases in November and December will surpass $1 trillion, marking a 4.2% rise from last year's $972 billion. Notably, the organization also predicted last year that holiday sales would cross the $1 trillion mark.
The spending picture is top heavy. According to the NRF, the highest-earning 10% of consumers could represent up to 70% of all holiday sales. "There is higher spending growth amongst the higher-income deciles and that is driving a lot of the growth in the sector," NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews said on a Thursday call. He added that the group expects "lower-income households to be a little bit more challenged in this environment with higher gas prices."
To cover the seasonal surge, retailers plan to bring on between 325,000 and 375,000 temporary workers. That range lines up with last year's estimate of 356,000 seasonal hires, suggesting a similar rush is expected.
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In early October, US consumer sentiment slipped, and assessments of economic conditions hit a record low amid inflation's pressure on households. The NRF, however, says confidence readings are not a reliable guide to actual spending behavior.
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